Who has the edge.
Cutler must produce because running the ball will be tough
When Dolphins run
Running backs Kenyan Drake (69 yards vs. Oakland) and Damien Williams (14 yards) combined for 83 yards rushing last week in their debut as the lead tandem. The Panthers are second in run defense (78.4 yards per game) so nothing will be easy for Miami’s offense. But for the Dolphins this matchup is based as much on situational runs — first downs, third-and-short, goal line, etc. Still, Defensive tackles Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei, MLB Luke Kuchely and WLB Thomas Davis will make that a tough task.
Edge: Panthers
When Panthers run
Running backs Jonathan Stewart (350 yards, 2.9 yards per carry, 1 TD) and Christian McCaffrey (64 carries, 183 yards, 2.9 yards per carry, 1 TD) are decent. QB Cam Newton (69 carries, 341 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 4 TDs) adds an element of danger to the ground game. Miami has a stout run defense (7th in NFL at 94 yards allowed per game) but Newton’s rushing yards mostly come against pass defenses. And he has 28 runs for first downs, which is seventh-best in the NFL. Miami can control Stewart and McCaffrey but they must be watchful of Newton. DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Cameron Wake and others must be disciplined and alert on pass rushes.
Edge: Dolphins
When Dolphins pass
QB Jay Cutler (10 TDs, 5 INTs, 87.4 passer rating, 18th in NFL) is coming off one of the best statistical games of his career. With Drake and Williams combining for 82 receiving yards out of the backfield last week there’s more diversity to the passing game. Carolina is sixth in pass defense (196 yards allowed per game) and the pass rush (29 sacks, second in NFL) is a big reason. Defensive ends Julius Peppers (7.5 sacks, tied for eighth in NFL) and Mario Addison (6.5 sacks, tied for 12th) have been fierce and Short (4.0 sacks) has been good up the middle. LG Ted Larsen should return to the lineup, which should help protect Cutler’s cracked ribs. If Miami loses this battle it’s tough to see how they score.
Edge: Panthers
When Panthers pass
Newton (10 TDs, 11 INTs, 78.4 passer rating, 27th in NFL) is having a worse year than Cutler. McCaffrey (54 receptions, 406 yards, 2 TDs) is Newton’s favorite target now that WR Kelvin Benjamin has been traded to Buffalo and TE Greg Olsen (foot) remains sidelined. Wake (6.0 sacks), Suh (3.5 sacks) and Branch (3.0 sacks) must pressure Newton while being mindful of his running ability. FS T.J. McDonald’s return could help as a hard-hitting veteran presence alongside SS Reshad Jones. Miami will need to produce turnovers to help the offense.
Edge: Dolphins
Special teams
Miami K Cody Parkey has missed three extra points but has been OK overall (9 of 10 FGs, 9 of 12 XPs) and P Matt Haack (45.2 yards per punt, 21st in NFL) continues to be up and down in his rookie season. KOR Jakeem Grant (22.6 yards per return) is basically alone now that Drake is playing more from scrimmage. Grant continues to handle punt returns (6.0 yards per return) with WR Jarvis Landry. Carolina K Graham Gano (19 of 20 FGs, 15 of 16 XPs) is reliable and P Michael Palardy (47.4 yards per punt, No. 9 in NFL) has been good. KOR Curtis Samuel (21.6 yards per return) and punt returners McCaffrey (7.2 yards per return) and Caelin Clay (4.0 yards per return) have been decent.
Edge: Panthers
Intangibles
Carolina has won back-to-back games, including last week’s 20-17 victory over Atlanta, while Miami has lost two in a row, including last week’s 27-24 loss to Oakland . ...
Miami is likely to get Larsen (biceps) and McDonald (suspension) in the starting lineup for their season debuts . ...
Cutler’s cracked ribs could be a factor against Carolina’s pass rush . ... Miami’s defense has been susceptible to big plays . ... Carolina’s offense — 21st in the NFL at 313.1 yards per game, 24th in passing yards per game at 204, 24th in points per game at 18.7 — hasn’t been great this year. ...
Carolina is 2-2 at home, Miami is 2-2 on the road. Edge: Carolina PREDICTION: Carolina 24, Miami 20