Israel’s spy caper and the Iran deal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walked the Tel Aviv stage like a game show host on Monday, slides flashing behind him in a dramatic televised speech aimed directly at Washington. The prime minister paced in front of shelves holding binders containing thousands of documents that he said proved Iran had lied about its nuclear weapons program.

This revelation, if verified, wouldn’t shock anyone who tracked the snarly negotiations in 2015 about what Iran had to reveal to earn an International Atomic Energy Agency sign-off on the deal. Back then, recall, Secretary of State John Kerry was adamant that Iran had to come clean about its nuclear weapons program. Then, oddly, he said disclosure was unlikely and not necessary: “U.S. confidence on this front is based in large part on what we believe we already know about Iran’s past activities.”

On Monday, an exercised Netanyahu talked about those past activities. The Israeli prime minister, speaking in English, revealed that his nation’s intelligence operatives somehow slipped inside a secret facility in Iran and lifted thousands of documents from a nuclear archive. He said the documents prove that Iran lied about the scope and sophistication of its program to build a nuclear weapon — a violation of the deal.

His implication: If Iran is released from the accord starting in 2025, as the agreement requires, then expect a nuclear Tehran shortly thereafter. Think of Netanyahu’s dramatic address as the opening act for the main event. That’s President Donald Trump’s decision, due by May 12, about whether the U.S. will remain in the multiparty pact. Our guess: May 12 will be a big moment, but it probably won’t be a surprising one.

That’s because Trump has long proclaimed the Iran accord as “the worst ever.” Earlier this year, he chafed against top advisers, including former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who counseled against ripping up the accord and reimposing sanctions. But Tillerson’s gone with a tweet. Two outspoken Iran deal critics, national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, are now at the president’s elbow.

That said, no one knows how much of the administration’s posturing is bluster, bluff or some other bargaining tactic. If Trump does withdraw the U.S. from the pact, he’ll need a plan to deal with the fallout if Iran restarts its nuclear program. How would the U.S. and its allies react?

We do appreciate the president’s efforts to rein in Iran’s ballistic missile program, eliminate sunset clauses in the pact and expand inspections of Iranian military sites. But we’re skeptical that other countries will go along with breaking the deal in order to improve it.

In recent months, European leaders have floated proposals to do just that. A few days ago, Trump appeared receptive to French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to renegotiate and expand the deal rather than tear it up. Macron suggested adding planks to the deal that would rein in Iran’s uranium enrichment, its missile programs and its support of militants throughout the region.

Netanyahu’s theatrical presentation was designed to persuade Trump to exit the Iran deal. It also highlighted a central truth: Iran is a dangerous foe, never to be allowed to build a nuclear weapon. The question is whether achieving that goal is easier with Tehran inside the deal, or outside.

This editorial was first published by the Chicago Tribune.