Sun Sentinel Broward Edition

Long odds in short period stand in way of playoff bid

- By Ira Winderman

MIAMI — (With the Miami Heat set to resume their schedule Thursday with a 26-30 record and 26-game sprint to the end of the regular season, we offer a two-part look at the potential direction going forward. Today, we look at the playoff chances. Tomorrow, we look at the lottery odds.)

For the final two months of the 2016-17 season there was nothing but endless optimism amid a 30-11 finish from the Miami Heat. There also were no playoffs.

Are we about to experience a repeat? Based on the majority of projection­s, actually something far less.

As a matter of perspectiv­e, through 56 games in

2016-17, the Heat stood at 24-32, on the way to 41-41, losing out on the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference to the Chicago Bulls in a tiebreaker.

But by the 56-game point of that season, the Heat already had been resurrecte­d by a 13-game winning streak. This season, the longest winning streak has been five.

Still, amid this seven-day All-Star break, there is an air of optimism, after a competitiv­e 2-3 western swing that included some of the team’s best sustained play in weeks.

“You just want to see progress,” said coach Erik Spoelstra, whose team will reconvene at Wednesday’s practice at AmericanAi­rlines Arena. “That’s the most important thing: Are guys improving? Is your team improving?

“At least for a fivegame stretch — well, eliminate the Denver game — but for the other four games, our ball club got better.”

With the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics and Philadelph­ia 76ers having created clear separation at the top of the Eastern Conference, and with the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Bulls and Atlanta Hawks feverishly competing for lottery balls at the bottom of the conference, the Heat find themselves in a six-team fight in the East’s middle ground, competing for the conference’s final three playoff spots.

That subset of standings has the Brooklyn Nets at 30-29, the Charlotte Hornets at 27-30, the Detroit Pistons at 26-30, the Heat at 26-30, the Orlando Magic at 27-32 and the Washington Wizards at 24-34. At the moment, that has the Nets, Hornets and Pistons (by virtue of conference-record tiebreaker over the Heat) in playoff position.

Of course, all remaining schedules are not created equally, which leads the playoff projection­s to higher math.

And the numbers are daunting.

According to the playoff projection­s of the FiveThirty­Eight statisticb­ased website, their “Carmelo” projection has the Heat closing at 36-46, 10th in the East, with only a 32-percent chance of advancing to the playoffs.

According to the FiveThirty­Eight “Elo” projection, the Heat will finish 38-44, ninth in the East, with a 39-percent chance of advancing to the playoffs.

According to Basketball­Reference, the Heat are projected to finish 38-44, at ninth in the East, with a 46.4-percent chance of advancing to the playoffs.

According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the Heat are projected to close at 38-44, but eighth in the East, with a 53.5-percent chance of advancing to the playoffs.

To put that consensus 38-44 finish into perspectiv­e, it would be the Heat’s worst since closing 37-45 in 2014-15, when they were eliminated from the playoffs on the penultimat­e night of the season, then moving into the lottery and eventually drafting Justise Winslow at No. 10.

Where it gets dicey for the Heat going forward is the remaining strength of schedule, with the next five games, alone, to feature Thursday’s return on the road against the 76ers and then a back-toback set next week against the Golden State Warriors at AmericanAi­rlines Arena, followed the next night against the Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center.

The Heat’s remaining opponents have a combined .524 winning percentage. Of the teams the Heat are competing with for an Eastern Conference playoff seed, only Charlotte and Brooklyn (both at .541) face a more treacherou­s road. By contrast, the remaining strength of schedule for the other teams in the Heat’s playoff pack are .482 for Detroit, .479 for Washington and .460 for Orlando.

“All you can ask,” Winslow said, “is continue to get better and hope that it can show up in the wins and losses a little bit more.”

The irony is the last time the Heat failed to make the playoffs, it was against Dwyane Wade’s Bulls. Now the question is whether Wade’s final season will end before the postseason.

“I just want to enjoy the end,” Wade said, with the odds intimidati­ng as the final stretch run of his 16-season career awaits. certainly

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