How NBA Draft lottery works
With 1,001 possible combinations for 14 ping-pong balls, the Heat have only 10 that mean they land the No. 1 overall pick. Instead they face a 90.6% chance of staying put at No. 13.
MIAMI — The answer will come almost instantly Tuesday night, with overwhelming odds that it will not be the result of choice for the Miami Heat.
Such is the reality of being tied for the best record among the entrants at an event designed to reward ineptitude.
Welcome to the 2019 draft lottery, the NBA’s annual gathering of teams unable to make the playoffs in a league where 16 of 30 do.
For six months, it was a destination the Heat desperately sought to avoid, a 39-43 finish leaving them two victories and a tiebreaker shy of the playoffs.
The consolation prize? Not much consolation at all — 1% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, a 4.7% chance at one of the first four selections, or otherwise a 90.6% chance of holding seed at No. 13 and a 4.6% chance of falling to the bottom of the lottery at No. 14, with only the first four picks determined by the random-but-weighted drawing in Chicago.
When it comes to ESPN’s televised portion of the event at 8:30 p.m. Tuesday, the Heat’s emotional state will be instant. If the Heat’s logo does not emerge as one of the first two envelops
opened by NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum, it will mean they have moved into one of the first four selections. Otherwise, the No. 13 or No. 14 it will be.
That quick and to the point — in a process that is anything but.
Behind the scenes
Where: The actual lottery drawing to determine the first-round order of the 14 non-playoff teams for the June 20 NBA draft in Brooklyn will take place in a separate room about an hour before ESPN’s broadcast.
Who: Select media members, NBA officials, representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm of Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawing. General Manager Andy Elisburg will be the Heat’s behindthe-scenes representative.
All personnel in the drawing room will be required to relinquish cell phones and any other communication devices until the televised lottery results are announced.
Mechanics: Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered 1 through 14, will be placed in a lottery machine manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a manufacturer of state lottery machines. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls prior to the drawing. There are no team logos on the ping-pong balls.
Math: There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
Heat math: Because of their No. 13 seeding, the Heat will be assigned 10 of the 1,001 numerical combinations.
The process: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and are mixed for 20 seconds; then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds; then the second ball is drawn. There is another 10-second mix; then the third ball is drawn. There is an ensuing 10-second mix; then the fourth ball is drawn. The team assigned that numerical combination will receive the No. 1 pick.
The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second, third and fourth picks.
Limitations: If the same combination comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. If the one unassigned combination (11-12-13-14) is drawn, the balls are drawn to the top again.
Once a team lands one of the first four positions, a redraw is held if one of those team’s combinations again is drawn.
In other words, if the New York Knicks’ combination is the first drawn, for the No. 1 selection, then New York’s combinations are eliminated for any of the remaining first four selections.
Supervision: The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.
Completion: The random portion of the lottery determines only the first four selections. The remaining first-round draft positions will be determined by inverse order of final 2018-19 regular-season won-loss record, with tiebreakers already having been determined.
Transparency: The league will release a video of the actual drawing shortly after the completion of ESPN’s lottery presentation. Video of the 2018 drawing can be found at https://www.youtube. com/watch?v= 4wFlQRdOo9U.
On stage
Where: The unveiling of the drawing results will be conducted on a specially designed stage at the Hilton Chicago.
Who: Each of the 14 lottery teams will be accounted for by a representative who will sit behind their team’s logo. The Heat’s on-stage representative is former Heat center and current team executive Alonzo Mourning, who also represented the team in 2017, when the Heat held seed and emerged with the No. 14 selection, utilized the following month on Kentucky center Bam Adebayo.
Secrecy/security: Darrington Hobson, a partner in the accounting firm of Ernst & Young, overseas the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes prior to bringing them to the studio for the broadcast.
Unlike the snafu at the 2017 Oscars, there is only one set of envelopes, so therefore no opportunity for the wrong result to be announced.
The process: The announcement of the lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum in inverse order of lottery finish (No. 14 first, No. 13 second, and so forth).
Neither Tatum nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the lottery results prior to the opening of the envelopes.
End game: If the Heat logo is not among the first two exposed, it means they have secured no worse than the No. 4 selection.
The numbers
The math: The Heat have a 4.7% chance of moving into one of the first three picks (1% percent of No. 1; 1.1% percent of No. 2; 1.2% at No. 3; 1.4% at No. 4), with a 90.6% percent chance of remaining at No. 13 and a 4.6% chance of falling to No. 14.
What follows: Because the Heat own their 2020 first-round pick, they are eligible to trade their 2019 first-round selection (teams may not trade successive future first-round picks; the Heat’s 2021 first-round pick is due to the Los Angeles Clippers, meaning the Heat currently cannot deal their 2020 or 2022 first-round picks).