Trump politicizing hurricane forecasts a big worry for Floridians

Imagine this scenario in 2020: Florida watches a major hurricane meander from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. Gov.

Ron DeSantis, as he did during Hurricane Dorian a year earlier, waits as long as possible before advising Floridians on preparations and mobilizing state agencies. He doesn’t want to cause needless panic and mass evacuation.

Finally, all forecast models show the storm tracking toward the Gulf coast between Louisiana and Alabama. Steering currents are in place. DeSantis cautions that the extreme western Panhandle should remain alert. Otherwise, however, the state stands down.

Two days later, however, President Trump tweets that Florida “would most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!”

Suddenly, emergency management directors throughout Florida start calling the governor’s office. Trump Twitter followers start buying gas and hoarding water. Local officials and residents wonder what Trump knows that the forecasters don’t know. Panic starts.

It should be way past time for discussion of Trump’s mistaken Sept. 1 tweet that Dorian would bash Alabama. Trump, however, won’t let us stop talking about it.

Against all evidence, the president keeps insisting that he was right. He forced the acting Homeland Security Department secretary to show a map that Trump had doctored with a Sharpie, extending that early forecast cone to Alabama.

Outside the White House, however, no one was buying it. So last Friday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an unsigned two-paragraph statement contradicting the NOAA employees in Alabama who — correctly — contradicted Trump’s tweet. In other words, Trump appointees reprimanded career National Weather Service forecasters for doing their jobs.

According to the statement, Dorian advisories issued from Aug. 28 through Sept. 2 “demonstrated that tropical-stormforce winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama.” Well, yeah. At one point, the National Hurricane Center track showed that tropical storm winds might affect a small portion of Alabama.

When Trump tweeted that Sunday morning, however, Dorian was pounding Great Abaco in The Bahamas and the forecast track took the storm over or near Florida and the Southeast coast. Alabama residents were enjoying the Labor Day weekend. As he does so often, Trump got the facts wrong and won’t admit it.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, whose department includes NOAA, reportedly threatened to fire forecasters who disputed Trump. According to The New York Times, Ross’ Friday phone call from overseas led to the statement.

Despite Ross’ subservience, other federal employees are serving the country, not the president. Their pushback should hearten Floridians. We depend on reliable weather reports more than most Americans.

Craig McLean is NOAA’s assistant administrator. In a Sunday night letter to staff members, McLean wrote that the Friday statement “was not based on science but on external factors including reputation and appearance, or simply put, political.”

Then on Monday, National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini spoke at a meeting of forecasters in — appropriately — Huntsville, Ala. “Let me be clear,” Uccellini said. “The Birmingham office did this to stop public panic, to ensure public safety …”

In addition, NOAA’s inspector general wants documents related to the statement. The National Weather Service, Peggy Gustafson wrote to agency employers, “must maintain standards of scientific integrity.” The statement risks damaging the National Weather Service’s “ability to communicate accurate and timely weather warnings and data to the nation in times of national emergency.”

Sharpie-gate got laughs because it was so clumsily contrived, but it represents another attack by Trump and his sycophants on truth and facts. This campaign began on Trump’s first day in office and concerned the size of his inaugural crowd. From there, it’s gone deep into policy.

Here are just two of many examples: The Trump administration has purged scientists who wrote about the effect of climate change on crops. Trump has claimed that Americans aren’t paying higher prices because of his tariffs on Chinese goods. In fact, they are.

Trump tossed that Dorian tweet into the tinder-dry world of social media. Unchecked, it could have spread too fast for local officials to control. Imagine something like that happening here.

As I wrote last week, Trump wants to win Florida next year despite policies that go against the interests of Floridians. His attempt to politicize weather forecasts is just the latest example.