PR more likely to be hit by major quake in coming week

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Puerto Rico is slightly more likely to be hit with an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher over the next week, the U.S. Geological Survey said, after an intense aftershock Saturday led the agency to tweak its statistical models.

In an “Aftershock Forecast” updated Sunday, USGS said the chance of a magnitude 6.0 quake or higher was 11%, up from 7% a week ago. However, the chance of a magnitude 7.0 remained at just 1%.

“Such an earthquake is possible but with low probability,” the USGS said.

Puerto Rico’s southern coast has been rattled by a series of quakes since Dec. 28 and was hit by the “mainshock,” a magnitude 6.4, on Tuesday. Since then aftershocks, most of them barely perceptible, have been part of daily life on the island. On Saturday, however, a 5.9 magnitude quake caused fresh damage and renewed panic.

“No one can predict the exact time or place of an earthquake, including aftershocks,” the USGS cautioned. “Our forecast changes as time passes due to decline in frequency of aftershocks, larger aftershocks that may trigger further earthquakes, and changes in forecast modeling based on data collected for this earthquake sequence.”

The government estimates that the earthquakes have damaged more than 559 structures and caused $110 million in damage. On Saturday, Gov. Wanda Vázquez signed a major disaster declaration and said she was sending $12 million dollars to hard-hit municipalities. That will allow them to start the recovery process ahead of federal funds that the island is expecting.