DeSantis’ approval rating falling
After 20 months as the state’s top elected official and six months into the coronavirus pandemic, some of the luster has worn off Gov. Ron DeSantis in the minds of Florida voters.
A Florida Atlantic University Poll released Tuesday found he was slightly underwater, with 43% of Florida voters approving of his performance, and 44% disapproving.
Statistically that’s a tie, within the polls margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
But it is a huge fall from the stratospheric levels of approval he enjoyed during his first year in office. Approval for the governor has dipped, and disapproval has soared.
In March 2019, two months after DeSantis took office, an FAU poll found 54% of voters approving of his performance with just 19% disapproving — a net positive of 35 percentage points.
It’s not an exact comparison, however, since FAU switched to using “likely voters” for the latest poll. Early in election cycles, pollsters use “registered voters,” and then switch to likely voters closer to Election Day in an attempt to better focus on people expected to vote.
In the intensely polarized political world of 2020, Republican approval of the governor has increased. But he’s down among independent voters and his approval among Democrats — once relatively strong for a Republican governor — has cratered.
Separately, a Monmouth UniversityPoll also released Tuesday showed DeSantis was rated favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 39% of Florida registered voters. Like the FAUpoll, it’s a statistical tie, but Monmouth found a larger share of peoplewhodidn’thave anopinion.
What oncewas
The first year was a heady time for the governor, whowas elected in an ultraclose election in 2018. DeSantis started strong and stayed strong.
In an analysis, FAU pollsters wrote DeSantis “continues to ride a wave of popularity among Florida voters.”
In February of last year, after DeSantis had been in office five weeks, an FAU poll found48% of voters approving of his performance, with just 18% disapproving — a net positive of 30 percentage points.
By January 2020, FAU found 48% of votes still approved of his performance. Disapproval had ticked up, to 28%. But that was still a net positive of 20 points.
In a poll taken in the first half ofMarch, voters’ views were even more positive, with54% approval and20% disapproval. That was a net positive of 34 percentage points — the same level he hit inMarch 2019.
“Most of the polling in the early part of his term was really positive. Some of that is due to how effectively he spoke to the issues that were important to many Floridians. He was a strong advocate on some environmental policies, he pushed for more money into education, and I think that was reflected in the strength of his numbers,” said KevinWagner, an FAU political scientist and research fellow at the university’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative.
Coronavirus arrives
That was just before the coronavirus swept into wide public awareness, and the governor’s performance — seen as leadership by his supportersandcatastrophic by his critics — could factor in voters’ views of how he was handling the crisis.
His political honeymoon lasted a long time. But by May 14, his approval (51%) was about the same, but disapproval had increased sharply (32%), leaving him with a net positive of 19 points.
“He had a honeymoon period that lasted a pretty long time,” Wagner said. “This has been a difficult year. I don’t think the book is closed on the handling of COVID in Florida, but certainly it’s been a difficult pandemic for much of Florida.”
Monmouthasked Florida voters if DeSantis has done a good job or bad job handling the coronavirus outbreak.
The results: 48% very or somewhat good and 47% very or somewhat bad.
That reflects partisan perspectives, with 88% of Republicans saying good and 81% of Democrats saying bad. Among independents, 43% said DeSantis has done a good job on the coronavirusand51% said a bad job.
Partisan view
Early on, DeSantis enjoyed good marks from a sizable number of Democrats. They’ve deserted him, and many no party affiliation/ voters have also left.
Republicans overwhelmingly approved of DeSantis’ performance last year — and even more feel thatway today.
In theMarch2019 survey, 72% of Republicans approved and11% disapproved of DeSantis’ performance, a net plus of 61 points.
In the September 2020 survey, 84% of Republicans approved and 8% disapproved, a net plus of 76 points.
In March 2019, no party affiliation/independentvoters gave DeSantis 51% approval and 12% disapproval, a net plus of 39 points. In September 2020, 36% approved and 46% disapproved, a net negative of 10 points.
In March 2019, pollsters found 37% of Democrats approved of DeSantis’ performance and 31% disapproved, a net positive of 6 points.
In September 2020, 9% of Democrats approve and 76% of Democrats disapproved, a net negative of 67 points.
“The partisan electorate is highly polarized, and for much of the early part of his term, the governor managed to avoid being stuck in that polarized perception of politics. I think that’s been harder to do considering how national the pandemic story has beenandhowcentral Florida has been to that story,” Wagner said.
Fine print
The latest results come from an FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative
survey of 631 Florida likely voters conducted online and through automated calls to people with landline telephones on Sept. 11 and 12.
Monmouth University surveyed 428 Florida voters from Sept. 10 to 13 with live callers, inEnglish and Spanish, to landlines and cellphones. The sample was drawn from a list of registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The sample size for subgroups, such asRepublicans or Democrats, is smaller, so themargin of error is higher than the plus or minus 4 percentage points for the overall results.