Kelly: ’Fins have big decision on Gesicki
In the next 12 months Mike Gesicki will either receive a substantial, life-altering contract from the Miami Dolphins, or he’ll be planning his future elsewhere.
That’s the cycle of life in the NFL.
A franchise develops a young player just enough for him to possibly price himself off their payroll. It has happened plenty this past decade with talents like tight end Charles Clay, defensive end Olivier Vernon, tailback Lamar Miller, receiver Jarvis Landry, offensive tackle Ja’Wuan James, and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, young draft picks Miami developed but let sign elsewhere when it was time for their second contract.
Miami wasn’t willing to pay what the free-agent market brought all those talents.
I suspect Gesicki will be next, especially if the Dolphins use the No. 6 pick to select Florida Gators standout tight end Kyle Pitts, who some draft experts feel is the second-best talent in the 2021 NFL draft.
Pitts and Gesicki could become a dynamic duo together, a pair of tights ends who create consistent mismatches like the Patriots had during the Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez era. Problem is, Pitts must be drafted by the Dolphins, and Gesicki needs to be paid to make that a reality.
But how much?
Gesicki has had one and a half seasons of high-level productivity as a starter. But it is an exaggeration of the truth to classify him as a tight end because of his limitations as a blocker.
He’s more slot receiver or H-back, a flex playmaker and seam threat, than he is a tight end. And there is no shame in that because of how the NFL has evolved into a pass-happy league. But how much do you pay that type of player?
That’s the discussion the Dolphins and Gesicki’s team will likely have in the coming weeks and months to determine if he’ll be part of this franchise’s future once his rookie deal — which pays him $1.3 million in 2021 — expires at the end of the season.
Durham Smythe, the blocking tight end Miami selected in the same 2018 draft to handle the in-line work, also will become a free agent next offseason. The Dolphins can’t keep everyone, despite that unit’s success last season where they set franchise records for receptions, yards and touchdowns at the position.
This summer would be the ideal time to get a deal done for Gesicki — if the Dolphins had cap space. But the Patriots just reset the tight end market with
this offseason’s signings of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.
Henry received a three-year, $37.5 million deal, which guarantees him $25 million. And Smith got a four-year, $50 million contract, which guaranteed the former Florida International standout $31.25 million.
That means Henry will earn $12.5 million over the next two seasons, and Smith will make $12.7 million a season if he plays all 16 games.
Those two contracts indicate Gesicki, who caught 53 passes for 703 yards and scored six touchdowns last year and has a similar level of production to Henry, who caught 60 of 93 passes thrown his way in 2020, will likely be seeking around $12 million annually in his next deal.
That deal doesn’t have to be made now. Miami can have him play out his existing contract, and use the franchise ($10.9 million) or transition tag ($9.3 million) to lock him up for the 2022 season.
But with Pitts as a possibility with the No. 6 pick — and other talents such as Penn State’s Pat Freiermuth, UM’s Brevin Jordan, Boston College’s Hunter Long and Virginia’s Tony Poljan as options in the later rounds — it would be wise for the Dolphins to know where they stand with Gesicki by negotiating an extension before the April 29 start of the draft.
The Dolphins gave receiver Will Fuller $10 million on a one-year, incentive-laden deal as a free agent, and are paying DeVante Parker $8,350,000 this coming season. Both are expected to be just as important to this offense as Gesicki, if not more.
This means the $12 million-perseason price point might be steeper than Miami is willing to pay, even with an influx of more money from the league’s new television contracts coming.
One of the major criticisms of the Dolphins over the past decade is that they let too many players the organization developed leave to sign elsewhere.
This year we’ll find out exactly how committed Miami is, or isn’t, to Gesicki.