Could a tropical storm hit South Florida by early next week?
Of the two systems in the Atlantic basin, one has deteriorated but the other could be headed on a path toward Florida, according to some of the latest spaghetti models.
By Wednesday afternoon, the system nearest the Caribbean had dropped to zero odds of developing, but the system located farther out in the Atlantic developed into tropical cyclone five by 5 p.m., according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters expect the system to become Tropical Storm Elsa by Wednesday night or Thursday.
Forecasters said Florida should monitor forecast updates but that it was too soon to tell what, if any, impacts from the storm might happen in the next week.
The tropical cyclone will be in South Florida’s neighborhood by the end of the weekend or early next week and it could deliver a direct hit as a tropical storm.
“There’s for sure a chance that could happen,” said WPEC-CBS12 meteorologist Lauren Olesky.
“It’s on the right path and trajectory to head toward us. It could make landfall in Alabama but we’re also kind of in its zone of where it’s going.”
More likely, however, the storm system will scrape by to our south and go into the Gulf of Mexico.
Either way, the tropical cyclone seems sure to bring rain to South Florida — and it could bring lots.
This is due to the fact that the right side of the storm is usually the wetter side. Olesky said disorganized tropical systems tend to disperse moisture over a large area so South Florida could get rain even if the system passes to the south.
“Even if it was just a very weak depression or storm and it passed to our south and went into the Gulf,” Olesky said, “that’s where that moisture content kind of comes into play for us, too.”
The determining factor of where the tropical cyclone goes, and when it turns north from its current westward direction, is the Bermuda High, a high-pressure system that is the storm’s steering mechanism. It’s essentially what deflects storms from Florida or allows them near.
Right now, the Bermuda High is sending both storms in the Atlantic westward.
“The Bermuda High sits in the Atlantic Ocean essentially year-round and it can strengthen, and it can weaken, and it can move, and it shifts,” Olesky said.
“Right now, that high is strong enough to kind of keep this area far enough south that it continues to go on that westward track… The strength of the high will then determine if it curves north before Florida, into Florida, or after Florida and in the Gulf.”
As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, the storm was heading west north-westward at 21 mph and was 1,195 miles east of the Windward Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, and it’s speed is expected to increase over the next few days.
Tropical cyclone five will pass near or over parts of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands Friday before it moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night. Then it will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.
Chances of the storm developing remained high Wednesday evening — 70% over the next two days and 90% over the next five.
The water in the Atlantic seems warm enough to sustain a tropical storm or tropical depression all the way to South Florida, Olesky said.
The next named storm would be the fifth of the season.
If a named storm were to develop before Monday, it would usurp Tropical Storm Eduardo in the record books as the earliest-forming fifth storm in history. Eduardo formed last year on July 5.