Tropical Storm Ida strengthens; US Gulf Coast could face major hurricane
Tropical Storm Ida formed Thursday and is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Sunday, bringing dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and rain to parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Although there is uncertainty in the forecast this many days out, experts said Thursday that coastal Louisiana could be under the greatest threat as Ida moves through the Gulf region Sunday into Monday.
Another tropical depression is forecast to emerge in the central Atlantic, but it is expected to stay east of the U.S. mainland. The next named storm would be Julian.
A major hurricane is defined as Category 3 or above, with top winds of 111 mph or greater. Of the three Atlantic hurricanes this season — Henri, Grace and Elsa — none was Category 3 or above.
The forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for an above-average season, with seven to 10 Atlantic hurricanes, and of those, three to six are expected to be major hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Ida is expected to head northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands Thursday night then near Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula by Friday as a hurricane.
Heavy rain and flooding is expected in these areas regardless of the system’s development, forecasters said. Hurricane Grace made landfall in the Yucatan last week as a Category 1 hurricane.
At 8 p.m. Thursday, Ida was 120 miles west of Negril, Jamaica, and 115 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. It had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and was moving northwest at 13 mph, and tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 70 miles from the storm’s center, forecasters said.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for several provinces of Cuba, the hurricane center said. Portions of the northern Gulf coast may be under tropical storm watches by Friday morning.
Tropical Storm Ida is forecast to end up in the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. It could gain strength over the warm Gulf waters.
“Once it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the entirety of the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on it,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Sammy Hadi.
A westerly path would take it toward Mexico’s Gulf coast, while a northwesterly path would bring it closer to Texas and Louisiana. Parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle may also be affected, the hurricane center said Thursday.
Donal Harrigan, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami, said Thursday that, at this point, South Florida is not expected to get more than possibly some rain.
“Beyond that we’re not expecting surge, wind, tornado threats, those sorts of things,” he said. “It would just be, ‘Do we get clipped by one of those bands of heavier rain?’ And again, that’s pretty unlikely.”
Meanwhile, a separate system, located several hundred miles east of Bermuda in the central Atlantic, has high odds of developing into a tropical depression late this week or weekend, forecasters said.
“This one looks like it will move eastward away from Bermuda and the United States,” Hadi said.
A third system in the far eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized thunderstorms and forecasters expect a tropical depression to form in the next few days. . It is expected to move west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Experts say upper-level winds could hinder its development by the weekend. As of Thursday afternoon, it had high odds of developing.