Angling to catch a big fish in Watson
A dive into every aspect of what a trade for the star QB would entail
Deshaun Watson wants to call South Florida his next home.
He’s flirted too long and too hard with the Miami Dolphins for us to draw any other conclusion.
And even though the star quarterback is still a member of the Houston Texans, is entangled in a civil lawsuit that includes 22 accusers of sexual assault, and the Dolphins seemingly committed to second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the flirtation continues.
According to league sources, the Dolphins have always been, and remain interested in acquiring Watson, a three-time Pro Bowl player. But at the right price. And Watson having control of where he ends up because of the no-trade clause in his contract is a factor that benefits the Dolphins.
At this point it is unclear what offer Miami has made to Houston, but other teams have backed out of the bidding for various reasons. The Texans reportedly haven’t budged from their desire to acquire the equivalent of four first-round picks for the talented, but troubled quarterback.
Even though franchise owner Steve Ross has seemingly green-lit Miami’s possible pursuit of Watson — either now or later — there’s a couple of issues that complicate this courtship.
Potential
Under coach Brian Flores, the Dolphins have already shown they are a cold and callous franchise, repeatedly undoing major decisions and deals — Josh Rosen, Shaq Lawson, Kyle Van Noy and Ereck Flowers — that routinely shakes down veteran players — Albert Wilson, Benardrick McKinney and Jakeem Grant — to save money.
That’s why the franchise’s lukewarm commitment to Tagovailoa isn’t out of character because if the
organization can do better, they will.
Watson, who ranked second in the NFL with a 112.4 passer rating in 2020, is already a franchise quarterback, so adding him to a team that possesses a top-ranked defense could turn the Dolphins into an instant title contender — especially with the team’s playmakers.
Tagovailoa, whose 87.1 passer rating ranked 28th last season, could become a top-10 passer in a season or two. He’s had a strong camp and preseason, showcasing the accuracy, anticipation and
leadership that made him the fifth pick in the 2020 draft.
But there are no guarantees Tagovailoa takes a drastic step forward, becoming a quarterback on Watson’s level, or remains durable.
Watson, who also has had durability questions, is already a top-five quarterback.
Timetable
The time to move Watson, or acquire him, was months ago, when he first demanded a trade out of Houston in late January because his relationship with that organization soured.
Or maybe even before, or during the NFL draft, when teams hadn’t addressed their quarterback needs. At this point, the quarterback market has dried up, but that could change by midseason or at the NFL trade deadline, which is Nov. 2.
But with the regular season starting next week, it would be incredibility difficult to teach Watson enough of the offense for him to perform at a high enough level to win games in the season’s first month.
But if Tagovailoa is going to remain with the Dolphins — assuming the Texans don’t want to acquire him as part of the trade package — there’s potentially no rush to get Watson on the field, especially with his pending legal issues.
Tagovailoa could serve as Miami’s starter for the 2021 season, and the Dolphins could let Watson and Tagovailoa’s play determine who emerges as the team’s top quarterback, and who gets traded away.
Legal issues
Twenty-two women have filed civil lawsuits in Texas accusing the quarterback of a pattern of coercive and lewd behavior, with two that allege sexual assault.
The NFL has been looking into the matter regarding numerous inappropriate massages for months, but haven’t levied any discipline.
It’s possible that the NFL is waiting for the legal process to take its course, and it should be pointed out no charges or arrests have been made for months.
The league has taken its own disciplinary action before waiting on the judicial system before. In past years, the NFL has placed players like Adrian Peterson and Kareem Hunt on the Commissioner’s Exempt list while their legal issues got resolved.
Cowboys tailback Ezekiel Elliott was even suspended six games without pay by the NFL for his alleged role in a domestic violence case in 2017 — even though the Columbus City Attorney’s Office declined to press charges.
The Exempt List is a special player status available to clubs only in unusual circumstances, like this one. Only the Commissioner has the authority to place a player on the Exempt List.
When Peterson pleaded no contest to misdemeanor reckless assault for what the league called “an incident of abusive discipline” toward his 4-year-old son, the NFL suspended him without pay for the final six games of the season, causing him to lose $4.2 million.
The NFL could take a similar approach with Watson, putting him on the Commissioner’s Exempt list for now, and then suspending him once his civil suit is settled, or a trial is concluded.
Money
To make room for Watson under the salary cap, the Dolphins would need to create $16 million in cap space. The team is slightly more than $1 million under the cap after this week’s release of Matt Skura and McKinney, and the reduction of Grant’s salary.
That means Miami would need to restructure contracts or trade a player to clear an additional $15 million in cap space to fit Watson in.
That’s not impossible, but wouldn’t be easy.
Tagovailoa signed a fouryear deal worth $30,275,436 million, that paid him $19,578,500 in a signing bonus. The team also has a fifth-year option on the deal that will pay him between $25-30 million in 2024. So if a team does trigger Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option, he’ll earn just over $11 million a season for the next four seasons.
The Texans signed Watson to a contract extension last offseason that is worth $156 million, guaranteeing him nearly $74 million, and has him signed through 2025. He was paid $27 million in a signing bonus. This year’s salary ($10.54 million) is extremely manageable, but the deal balloons to a fully guaranteed $35 million in base salary in 2022, and $20 million in base salary and a $17 million roster bonus due in 2023. Watson will earn $32 million a season in 2024 and 2025, but neither of those salaries are guaranteed.
The bottom line is Watson’s salary will eat up more than 15 percent of his team’s salary cap space after this season, the last of the manageable years without restructuring the deal.
Tagovailoa’s salary is manageable for the next four seasons, while Watson’s is the fourth-largest contract in the NFL. Only Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Dallas’ Dak Prescott have larger deals.
Competition
The Philadelphia Eagles were reportedly involved in the bidding for Watson until they acquired Gardner Minshew from the Jacksonville Jaguars. And there’s speculation that Watson wouldn’t approve a trade to Philadelphia.
The fact he holds a no-trade clause in his contract gives him leverage, and some control of where he plays.
Around midseason, the New York Giants, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints and Washington might become interested in Watson if those teams are piling up losses and lose faith in their quarterback.
Few teams have more draft capital than the Dolphins, who possess two first-round picks in 2022 because of the draft trade that allowed the San Francisco 49ers to select Trey Lance with the third pick Miami once owned.
So if the Dolphins are willing to do a deal with Houston for Watson before the Nov. 2 trade deadline, or even during the 2022 offseason, they have the ammunition to do so.
The only questions that remain are whether the Dolphins’ interest in Watson will escalate if Tagovailoa struggles or gets hurt, if Houston’s asking price will eventually lower, and if Watson’s desire to become a South Floridian remains consistent.