Policy and curious timing

The political argument is, in many ways, separate from the substance over whether the new policies are the correct course — the scope and reach of each policy remains somewhat vague.

On Cuba, the administration would lift the family remittance cap of $1,000 per quarter and allow non-family remittances to entrepreneurs; take steps to allow more Cubans to join families in the U.S.; and make it easier for families in the U.S. to visit their relatives in Cuba. Additional air flights to the island nation will also be allowed.

On Venezuela, the administration signaled some easing of sanctions — if Maduro engages in talks with Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader who is backed by the U.S.

The reason for the timing of the changes, 16 months into Biden’s presidency, isn’t entirely clear. During the 2020 campaign, he promised to reverse some Trump policies toward Cuba, many of which were reversals of Obamaera policies toward Cuba. On July 11, 2021, massive protests began in Cuba — prompting new repressive measures by the regime — and the administration said at the time it would review its policies.

“Why now? Why a few months before the midterm elections, when clearly there is political fallout?” Duany said.

Duany said the White House could see a need to act now if moves in relation to Cuba ease the migration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, which he said has seen an enormous influx of Cubans. It may also help avoid collapse of the upcoming Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles. Mexico’s president has threatened not to attend if Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua aren’t invited.