Gains, then losses
Democrats had been seeing some gains among Hispanic voters, including Cuban Americans, in Florida, especially during the Obama presidency.
But that changed under former President Donald Trump. He catered to hardline views on Cuba and Venezuela, including reversing most of Obama policies that saw greater U.S. interaction with the island nation and its residents.
And, he was especially effective at communicating his views in a way that bolstered his support among Cuban American and Venezuelan American voters in South Florida.
Leading up to the 2020 election, Trump and Republicans repeatedly targeted messages at South Florida Hispanic voters, hammering home the idea that Biden and Democrats are socialists. Democrats
scoffed at the notion as preposterous — but they never came up with an effective way to counter the message, and they suffered politically.
Angelo Castillo, a Pembroke Pines city commissioner who is a Cuban American Democrat, said it was inflammatory and inaccurate, but there is “no question” the messaging worked.
November 2020 proved disastrous for Florida Democrats. Trump won Florida by a greater margin than in 2016. And Democrats lost two Miami-Dade County-based congressional districts; both seats are now held by Cuban American Republicans.
Trump didn’t win Miami-Dade County, where six in 10 registered voters are Hispanic. But he performed far better in 2020 against Biden than he did in 2016, and Biden did much worse than Hillary Clinton did four years earlier.
In 2020, Biden received 53% of the vote in Miami-Dade County to 46% for Trump. In 2016, Clinton captured 63% of the vote, compared to 34% for Trump.
In Broward, Trump also performed better than in 2016. In 2020, Biden had a 20.3 percentage point advantage over Trump in the 25 precincts with the largest percentages of Hispanic registered voters. In 2016, Clinton enjoyed a 38.5 point advantage over Trump in the 20 precincts with the largest share of Hispanic voters.
And in two Broward cities with large Hispanic populations, Trump performed much better in 2020. In Weston he was 8.7 points higher than in 2016, and in Pembroke Pines he was 5.8 points higher. Countywide, he improved by 3.6 points.
South Florida’s members of Congress have long been aware of the politics and the policy views their constituents hold and want their elected officials to pursue. Curbelo said Democratic and Republicans were never divided on the issue. “The South Florida delegation was always fully united and even other colleagues from other parts of the state would usually vote in solidarity with the South Florida delegation.”