A nuanced look at how Worldwar I started

ASarajevo chauffeur took awrong turn, and Serb nationalistGavrilo Princip had his chance to assassinate Archduke Franz Ferdinand ofAustria-Hungary and his wife. In the resulting inferno ofWorldWar I, 9 million others died.

Conventional wisdom of the last 100 years holds that Germany’s desire for empire and cultural hegemony turned Princip’s deed into an excuse forwar. Barbara Tuchman’s famed history “The Guns ofAugust” makes the most of this case.

SeanMcMeekin, an assistant history professor at Turkey’sKocUniversity, argues that ambitions in Russia and Francewere at least as responsible and traces the foibles of Europe’s major powers in a month that launched a disaster for them all.

Austria-Hungary, its heir to the throne gone, had cause to exact revenge on Serbia. Germany supported the Austrian cause but expected a quickwar thatwould be over before Serbia’s ally Russia had a chance to intervene.

Instead, Austria-Hungary’s inept diplomacy, leaked intentions and poor military readiness gaveRussia a month to prepare for a much largerwar stretching from Constantinople to Berlin.

French President Raymond Poincare sailed into St. Petersburg threeweeks after the archduke’s assassination. During this state visit, his ambassador toRussia had a conversation with Grand Duchess Anastasia, wife of the future army commander Grand DukeNicholas Nicholaevich.

“There’s going to bewar. There’s nothing left ofAustria. You’re going to get back Alsace and Lorraine. Our armies will meet in Berlin. Germany will be destroyed!” she chortled.

Shemay have been ahead of the statesmen, but not by much. Poincare, who McMeekin writeswas elected president in 1913 with secretRussian subsidies, had come to visit hisRussian allies hoping to stiffen their resolve.

Russia mobilized its huge army even beforeAustriaHungary attacked Serbia. Germanywas the last of the continental powers to mobilize.

Germany’s great mistake was invading Belgium to flank the French, amove that made Britain a foe. What started as aBalkan conflict swiftly morphed into awar between evenly matched alliances, with the Ottomans coming in on the side of Germany andAustria-Hungary and the British on the side of the French andRussians.

No one expected a long war. CzarNicholas II tried to avoid a “monstrous slaughter” by ordering a halt toRussia’s military call-up, but his cabinet talked him out of it. Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm II and Britain’s King GeorgeValso sawtheir civilian governments run rings around them.

France andRussia expected to win, with Germany outnumbered on two fronts and Britain controlling the seas. Germany expected to lose and bet all on a knockout blowagainst France.

McMeekin praisesTuchman’s 1962 epic for inspiring him to write “July 1914.” What he has delivered is a strong challenge to “The Guns ofAugust.”

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was the catalyst forWorldWar I, but other factors contributed.