Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Playoff math still fuzzy for Heat
A quantum leap still will be needed for Heat to advance to the postseason.
MIAMI — The simplest part of the playoff equation also is the most difficult part of the process — the math.
At 20-30 entering the weekend, the Miami Heat faced going 21-11 the balance of the season to reach .500.
To put that .656 pace into perspective, consider that only the Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs went into the weekend playing at that rate. Extrapolated over the course of an entire season, it is the same 54-victory pace produced during the final season of the Heat’s Big Three collaboration of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2013-14.
Granted, the final playoff seed in the Eastern Conference might not require a 41-41 finish. But when there remain so many teams to leapfrog, it is a reasonable objective if the playoffs, indeed, are to be targeted.
Based on where the East stands at the moment, the Cavaliers stand alone. There then is second tier of seeming playoff locks, when counting the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks. And based on the play of the Indiana Pacers, an argument could be made that at least six teams in the East appear beyond the Heat’s reach.
So what then for the remainder of the field if the Heat do indeed plan to move forward, and past the Feb. 23 NBA trading deadline, with a playoff push?
Chicago Bulls: At this stage, anything short of a playoff berth could mean cleaning house everywhere from the executive suite to the coaching offices to the roster itself.
And yet, as the Heat’s visit a week ago showed, it won’t take much for it to teeter, with the trading deadline possibly to send a signal about living in the moment (keeping Jimmy Butler) to cashing out (sending Rajon Rondo home for the balance of the season).
The Bulls hold their own pick in the draft when it comes to lottery visions, and also receive the Sacramento Kings’ first-round pick if it is not among the first 10.
Charlotte Hornets: The trade for Miles Plumlee and Plumlee’s contract show a clear desire to live in the moment. The Hornets still are stinging about falling short in Game 7 in last season’s first round against the Heat.
The Hornets hold their own first-round pick when it comes to any lottery thoughts.
Detroit Pistons: The Pistons are at a crossroads with Stan Van Gundy’s roster composition, especially with the impending move next season to a downtown arena. Just how much the Pistons remain in the moment could come down to the approach with Reggie Jackson at the trading deadline.
The Pistons hold their own first-round pick.
Milwaukee Bucks: No team battling for one of the final East spots is better positioned for a quantum leap than the Bucks, who soon will have Khris Middleton making his season debut from his September hamstring tear. Factor in the upside of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker, and the Bucks could make it seven playoffs locks in the East.
The Bucks hold their own first-round pick.
New York Knicks: This all comes down to the approach with Carmelo Anthony at the trading deadline. An equivalent-value trade (Kevin Love) would keep them competitive. A sell-off (Clippers leftovers) might force Phil Jackson to scout college games.
The Knicks hold their own first-round pick.
Orlando Magic: What a mess, now facing the freeagency loss of Serge Ibaka for nothing in return. While the talk of the Magic’s willingness to be buyers at the trading deadline makes it appear that they will insist on living in the moment, this might already be trending too far south.
The Magic hold their own first-round pick.
Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers appear poised only to trust The Process to a degree, keeping a mindful eye on Joel Embiid’s minutes. This still remains mostly about the future for Philadelphia.
The 76ers not only get the Los Angeles Lakers’ first-round pick if it is not among the first three, but also the right to swap firstround selections with the Kings, should they finish with a superior record to Sacramento.
Miami Heat: Three games remain against the Cavaliers, two against the Raptors, as well as road games against the Houston Rockets, Hawks, Celtics and Wizards. The margin for error therefore is razor thin.