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Syria tests Trump’s plan for new world order
Long-term effect of strike depends on what he does next
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump made an about-face in his approach to the Middle East by launching a fiery salvo of cruise missiles at Syria. With it came relief to American allies — and many of the president’s critics at home — but its impact in Syria will ultimately depend on what he does next.
Attacking one airfield — at least one of the two runways were still in use Friday — hardly diminishes President Bashar Assad’s military capability. And whatever cache of poison gas or other chemical agents the Syrian government has remains intact, including one at the air base that the Pentagon didn’t target for fear of spreading a toxic cloud.
The volatile situation will test the new administration’s ability to respond to international atrocities or other provocations while upholding Trump’s vow to keep the American military out of prolonged ground wars around the world.
Already, administration officials are signaling the targeting of the Shayrat air field was a one-and-done — a reassertion of American military might that will not be backed up with a more extensive plan for ousting Assad or protecting Syrian civilians from attacks that involve anything other than banned chemical weapons.
But engaging — and disengaging — in Syria is not that simple.
“If this is a one-off event, fire and forget retaliation against a single incident, it will prove useless,” said Frederic Hof, who was a special adviser for transition in Syria during the Obama administration. “It will prove ineffective and history will record it as such.”
Assad has any number of tools to inflict cruelty, even if the U.S. airstrike has him reconsidering the use of banned nerve agents.
Each new atrocity will undermine Trump’s effort to project strength and establish the red line he has declared may not be crossed, drawing Americans into a deeper conflict.
“This is the beginning, and a lot of hard things have to be done,” Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz, chairman of the Senate armed services committee, told MSNBC. “This is a long, hard slog.”
Trump now faces the pressures that President Barack Obama sought to avoid when he decided against approving U.S. military strikes in Syria himself in 2013, after Congress refused to authorize them. Except now, Russian troops are in Syria, raising the stakes of an inadvertent clash with a nuclear-armed rival.
Trump acted without seeking congressional authorization. He did so swiftly and almost impulsively.
It moved him to reverse course on his years-long campaign against launching exactly the airstrikes that he approved Thursday.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson conceded that at least one runway was in use Friday, but he said it was not a specific target.
The strike was not intended to wipe out Assad’s air force, but to debilitate the airfield and deliver a message that the U.S. will no longer accept chemical attacks against civilians, U.S. officials said.
“This strike was related to the use of chemical weapons only,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said. “I don’t interpret this as a first step toward anything else in particular.”
Derek Chollet, who advised the White House and State Department on Syria during the Obama administration, doubts this will be the end. Now that military action has been taken, he said, pressure on Trump to keep Assad in check will be intense — both at home and abroad.
“Even if Assad stops using chemical weapons or we destroy whatever remaining chemical weapons he’s got, there is a slippery slope for Trump to grapple with,” Chollet said.
“The logic of intervention begins to take on a life of its own,” he added. “Those who believe this should be the beginning of a new approach will raise pressure on the administration. Allies will be thinking that this is a new era. It becomes very difficult for presidents to resist.”
Even a narrow U.S. mission, focused on chemical weapons only, considerably expands the American role in Syria.
Trump will find himself under pressure to articulate a clear strategy for Syria. The congratulations and encouragement he received from many lawmakers and allies Friday could give way to confusion and concern about the path forward.