Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Questions for a team that went from cold to hot.
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. It was, undoubtedly, the tale of two seasons for the Miami Heat, from 11-30 over the first half to 30-11 over the second.
Ultimately, there was no playoff payoff, the NBA playing on without the Eastern Conference’s hottest team over the regular season’s final 41 games.
But there also is no looking back, because, by rule, teams eliminated from the postseason are allowed to immediately consummate trades with other teams no longer playing.
Then there is the draft aspect, with the Heat, back in that game, as well, with most likely the No. 14 selection on June 22. Scouts Eric Amsler and Keith Askins already have spent the past week at the Portsmouth Invitational for college seniors, with the Heat in May to have a much larger scouting contingent at the Chicago predraft combine.
And while free agency doesn’t begin until July 1, only the most naïve of observers could turn a blind eye to the subtle overtures, feelers, machinations (tampering?) that takes place in advance.
In other words, for the Miami Heat, even with game over, it’s also again game on.
With that said, 10 burning questions for a team that went from tepid to torrid over the second half of this past season.
Question: What can the short term deliver?
Answer: While teams eliminated from playoff contention can begin making trades, only those under contract going forward may be dealt. In other words, impending free agents, or those with player or team options yet to be decided remain off the table.
For the Heat, the only players currently trade eligible are Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington, Tyler Johnson, Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Rodney McGruder and Okaro
White.
Q: Where do the Heat stand with Chris Bosh?
A: Poised and ready to apply to the NBA for salary-cap relief when relief is needed, namely for the July start of the freeagency signing period. The expectation is that the NBA will grant salary-cap relief, alleviating the Heat of Bosh’s $25.3 million against the cap for 2017-18, with the Heat and insurance still paying out the balance of Bosh’s contract through its 2018-19 expiration.
Q: What can the draft deliver?
A: Based on the lottery odds, with just a 0.5-percent chance of the No. 1 pick and 1.8-percent chance of one of the first three selections, it likely will leave the Heat at No. 14. Among those expected to be available in that range are UCLA forward T.J. Leaf, Cal forward Ivan Rabb, Wake Forest power forward John Collins, Duke guard Luke Kennard, Duke forward Harry Giles, Gonzaga center Zach Collins, Indiana forward OG Anunoby, Creighton center Justin Patton, and possibly Florida State forward Dwayne Bacon, among others.
Q: When does free agency start?
A: Technically on July 1, but the back-channel discussions between players (and perhaps even teams) usually begin in advance, at least when it comes to setting up meetings. With signings allowed to begin July 6.
Q: Where do the Heat stand with their own free agents?
A: Udonis Haslem, James Johnson and Luke Babbitt will become free agents on July 1. Dion Waiters ($3 million), Willie Reed ($1.6 million) and Josh McRoberts ($6 million) also can become free agents if they bypass their player options by June 30. The Heat have until July 6 to decide
whether to guarantee Wayne Ellington’s 2017-18 salary ($6.7 million) or make him a free agent.
Q: What’s out there for the Heat?
A: The biggest fish are Gordon Hayward, Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Kyle Lowry, Paul Millsap, Danilo Gallinari and Serge Ibaka. Few, if any, are expected to move, although Gallinari could intrigue the Heat if Hayward is off the board, and Ibaka previously has intrigued the Heat.
Q: Where do the Heat stand with cap space?
A: A reasonable working figure, based on the projected $101 million 2017-18 cap, is about $37 million, which does not include any of the Heat’s impending free agents, or even Ellington (but does include McRoberts’ $6
million, which is expected to be difficult to move).
Q: Which incumbent player is most vulnerable?
A: Not counting the free agents, who are free to set their own course, it will be interesting to see the Heat’s approach with Justise Winslow, considering Winslow’s shooting issues and the premium the Heat placed on shooting over the second half of the season. The Heat thrived in Winslow’s absence. Could they be even more dangerous with him in place?
Q: What about the long view?
A: Pat Riley turned 72 in March, so the long view could be limited. But there is a chance Tyler Johnson could be moved to create flexibility going forward. While Johnson only has a $5.9 million cap hit for the
2017-18 payroll, it goes up to $19.2 million the following two seasons based on the structure of his contract.
Q: Will this look familiar next season?
A: That is exactly what these coming days, weeks and months will be about. Can going 30-11 over the second half of the season be extrapolated over an entire season? Or is this a group that maxed out its possibilities, while also maximizing salaries of the players involved? It is why it is always wise to step back for a while, so the emotion of the moment doesn’t dictate the future.