Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Longest of odds
Miami Heat well aware of the odds (and ends) of the NBA draft lottery
The last time the Miami Heat were in the NBA draft lottery, they sought to avoid disaster. This time, when they return Tuesday to the randomthe but-weighted process, they’re seeking a miracle. And perhaps a long-overdue break.
To say the lottery has not been kind to the Heat over the franchise’s 29 seasons would be an understatement. Not only have the Heat never gained ground in the drawing for the top three selections in the draft, but have dropped a combined 11 spots over their previous eight appearances.
Two years ago, the stakes were particularly high, needing to at least hold seed at No. 10 or lose that pick to the Philadelphia 76ers. For once, the odds did not betray Pat Riley’s team, and Justise Winslow was reward.
This time the odds are as long as they have been for any Heat appearance, as the No. 14 seed in the 14-team drawing.
That has the Heat with a 0.5 percent chance at the No. 1 selection in the June 22 draft, a 0.6 percent chance at the No. 2 pick and a 0.7 percent chance at No. 3, leaving the Heat with a 1.8 percent chance of moving up and a 98.2 percent chance of remaining with the lowest selection of the teams not to advance to this season’s playoffs.
As a matter of perspective, a No. 14 seed has never moved up under the current odds, since the lottery was expanded to 14 teams in 2005. Also, the lowest-seeded team has not moved up since Charlotte vaulted from No. 13 to No. 3 in 1999, landing Baron Davis. But, still, there is at least a chance. “It’s interesting,” Adam Simon, the Heat’s assistant general manager noted, “even though we’re at 14 and we have a 1.8 percent chance of moving up, I’ve had conversations with many agents already trying to get players here to work out, and they’re telling me that they’re going to wait until the lottery to make that decision.”
Because if the bouncing balls finally fall in the Heat’s favor, among those showing up at AmericanAirlines Arena for auditions could be Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz or Josh Jackson, instead of, perhaps, Justin Jackson, OG Anunoby and T.J. Leaf.
For now, we revisit our look at lotteries past for the Heat, and the toll those bouncing balls have taken over the years.
2015
WINSLOW, AND NO-SALE Seed: No. 10, after finishing with the league’s 10th-worst record at 37-45. Odds: The Heat entered with a 1.1 percent chance of exiting with the No. 1 pick, a 1.3 percent chance of exiting at No. 2, a 1.6 percent of exiting at No. 3. Result: Finished at No. 10, with none of the four lower seeds jumping ahead. That was critical, with the pick otherwise to go to the 76ers to complete the 2010 sign-andtrade transaction for LeBron James. The Heat instead sent the 2016 No. 24 pick to Philadelphia to complete that deal. Outcome: The Heat bypassed a trade offer of multiple first-round picks from the Celtics to instead hold their position and select Duke forward Justise Winslow, who had been expected to go so much higher that he did not meet or work out for the Heat before the draft. In hindsight: Among those bypassed by the Heat in favor of Winslow was Kentucky shooting specialist Devin Booker, who went at No. 13 to the Suns and has emerged as an elite scorer. Winslow arguably worked out as well or better than No. 3 pick Jahlil Okafor (76ers), No. 5 pick Mario Hezonja (Magic), No. 7 pick Emmanuel Mudiay (Nuggets), No. 8 pick Stanley Johnson (Pistons) and No. 9 pick Frank Kaminsky (Hornets).
2008
NO ROSE, JUST BEASLEY Seed: No. 1, after finishing a league-worst 15-67. Odds: The Heat entered with a 25 percent chance of exiting with the No. 1 pick, a 21.47 percent chance of exiting at No. 2, a 17.72 percent of exiting at No. 3. Result: Finished at No. 2, because ninth-seeded Chicago, which closed that season at 33-49 and had only a 1.7 percent chance of landing at No. 1, beat the odds to jump into the top spot, one of the largest leaps in lottery history. Outcome: The Heat had to settle for Kansas State forward Michael Beasley at No. 2, after the Bulls chose Memphis point guard Derrick Rose with the draft’s first selection. In hindsight: Among those bypassed by the Heat in favor of Beasley, who lasted only two years in his first stint with the Heat before a pair of brief comebacks, were Russell Westbrook (No. 4), Kevin Love (No. 5) and Brook Lopez (No. 10).
2003
NOT LEBRON, BUT WADE AS CONSOLATION Seed: No. 4, after finishing with the league’s fourth-worst record, at 25-57. Odds: The Heat entered with a 12 percent chance of exiting with the No. 1 pick, a 12.68 percent chance of exiting at No. 2, a 13.39 percent of exiting at No. 3. Result: Finished at No. 5, because Memphis, which finished with the league’s sixth-worst record, at 28-54, jumped into the No. 2 spot, pushing each team thereafter down one slot. The Grizzlies had only a 7.2 percent chance of moving up to No. 2. Outcome: After LeBron James went No. 1 to Cleveland, Darko Milicic No. 2 to Detroit (who had acquired that pick from Memphis), Carmelo Anthony No. 3 to Denver and Chris Bosh No. 4 to Toronto, the Heat took Marquette guard Dwyane Wade with the No. 5 selection. In hindsight: With the selection of Wade, the Heat essentially came out second only to the Cavaliers in that draft. Among those bypassed by the Heat were No. 6 selection Chris Kaman by the Clippers and No. 8 selection T.J. Ford by the Bucks, players who both had been considered for the No. 5 pick by Heat president Pat Riley.
2002
HEAT RISE WITH BUTLER’S FALL Seed: No. 10, after finishing tied for the league’s ninthworst record with Phoenix at 36-46, later losing a drawing with the Suns to fall to the No. 10 seed. Odds: The Heat entered with a 1.4 percent chance of exiting with the No. 1 pick, a 1.65 percent chance of exiting at No. 2, a 2 percent of exiting at No. 3. Result: Finished at No. 10, with none of the three teams seeded behind the Heat jumping up in the process. Outcome: The Heat benefited from injury concerns about UConn forward Caron Butler, with rumors circulating before the draft about bullet fragments remaining lodged in Butler’s body from his rugged childhood. Teams selecting earlier in the process instead squandered picks on eventual NBA washouts Nikoloz Tskitishvili (Denver, No. 5) and Dajuan Wagner (Cleveland, No. 6). In hindsight: Butler helped spark a Heat revival the next season alongside Dwyane Wade, his emergence making him one of the Heat’s prime trade chips in the 2004 deal with the Lakers for Shaquille O’Neal. Over his 14-season career that ended in 2015-16, Butler wound up outperforming earlier picks in that draft such as Jay Williams, Tskitishvili, Wagner, Jared Jeffries and Chris Wilcox.
1995
THOMAS THE LAST PRE-RILEY PICK Seed: No. 8, after finishing with the league’s eighth-worst record, at 32-50. Odds: The Heat entered with a 2.7 percent chance of exiting with the No. 1 pick, a 3.17 percent chance of exiting at No. 2, a 3.82 percent of exiting at No. 3. Result: Finished at No. 10, with every team after No. 5 pushed back two spots to accommodate the slotting of expansion Vancouver (now Memphis) and Toronto into the Nos. 6 and 7 draft spots. Had it not been an expansion year, the Heat would have drafted at No. 8, with none of the teams behind the Heat in the 1995 lottery moving up by virtue of the drawing. Outcome: The Heat benefited from injury and temperament questions about Kurt Thomas to land the forward out of TCU at No. 10, after he led the nation in scoring and rebounding. In hindsight: The pick was the last for the Heat before Pat Riley took over the front office, with former general manager Dave Wohl making the selection. Although Thomas struggled with injuries during his brief Heat tenure, he was the featured piece in the trade with Dallas that allowed the Heat to acquire Jamal Mashburn from the Mavericks in 1997. No player selected after Thomas in the 1995 draft lasted in the NBA as long as his 19 seasons.
1991
CONSOLATION WITH STEVE SMITH Seed: No. 2, after finishing with the league’s second-worst record at 24-58. Odds: This was before the NBA dramatically increased the lottery probability of teams with the worst records picking highest. In 1991, that left the Heat with 10 of 66 balls in the lottery hopper, with scant better odds than other teams at the bottom of the standings. Result: The Heat fell the maximum possible three spots to No. 5, with No. 5 Charlotte landing the first pick, No. 4 New Jersey the second pick and No. 3 Sacramento the third pick, pushing No. 1 Denver to No. 4. Outcome: The Heat utilized the No. 5 pick on Michigan State guard Steve Smith, who arguably had a better NBA career than Kenny Anderson, who went No. 2 to the Nets, and Billy Owens, who went No. 3 to the Kings and later would play for the Heat. In hindsight: While holding seed would have afforded the Heat an opportunity at No. 4 pick Dikembe Mutombo (but not No. 1 pick Larry Johnson), Smith’s pick signaled a defining turn for the Heat from the team’s expansion mode. His arrival led to the trade of point guard Sherman Douglas early in the 1991-92 season, with Smith leading the Heat to the franchise’s first playoff berth in 1992. No player selected later in the 1991 draft had a more productive career.
1990
HEAT’S ONLY LOTTERY TRADE Seed: No. 2, after finishing tied for the league’s secondworst record with Orlando at 18-64, later winning a drawing with the Magic for the No. 2 lottery seed. Odds: This was before the NBA dramatically increased the probability of teams with the worst records picking higher. In 1990, that left the Heat with 10 of 66 balls in the lottery hopper. Result: Finished at No. 3, with Charlotte jumping from No. 5 to No. 1 after a 19-63 season and New Jersey falling from No. 1 to No. 2. Outcome: Seeking depth of talent, the Heat traded the No. 3 selection, their only trade in a lottery appearance, for the Nos. 9 and 16 selections. Through that trade and another that followed, the Heat landed Minnesota swingman Willie Burton at No. 9 and Georgia power forward Alec Kessler at No. 12. In hindsight: Although capable of scoring bursts, Burton never was able to fit into team concepts, while Kessler’s outside-shooting approach limited his effectiveness in the power game. The result was middling careers for both. The Heat’s No. 3 draft slot was used by Denver on LSU guard Chris Jackson (later known as Mahmoud AbdulRauf ). Among those the Heat could have selected had they retained the No. 3 pick were Dennis Scott, Kendall Gill and Tyrone Hill. Had the Heat held their No. 2 lottery seed, they could have drafted Oregon guard Gary Payton at that slot, with Payton later helping the Heat win the 2006 NBA championship.
1989
FALLING INTO RICE Seed: This was the final year without lottery seeds, with all nine non-playoff teams receiving one envelope in a lottery hopper that determined each of the first nine picks in the draft. Odds: All nine non-playoff teams had equal odds for the first three picks, with the Heat coming off a league-worst 15-67 inaugural season, given the same odds as 40-42 Washington. Result: Dropped the maximum allowable three spots to No. 4, bypassed by the Kings, Clippers and Spurs for the top three picks, in that order. Outcome: Another year when little pain was accompanied by a lottery fall, with the Heat selecting Michigan forward Glen Rice, after Louisville center Pervis Ellison went No. 1 to Sacramento, Duke forward Danny Ferry No. 2 to the Clippers and Arizona forward Sean Elliott No. 3 to the Spurs. In hindsight: The Heat fared as well as anyone in the lottery, with Rice’s selection followed by the lottery selections of J.R. Reid, Stacey King, George McCloud, Randy White and Tom Hammonds. The steal of that draft came at No. 14, when Golden State selected Texas-El Paso guard Tim Hardaway, who, of course, later went on to star with the Heat.