Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Heat hopes
Miami has 98.2 percent chance of picking No. 14
NBA draft lottery set for tonight.
MIAMI — The answer will come instantly tonight, with overwhelming odds that it will not be the result of choice for the Miami Heat. Such is the reality of being the best team at an event designed to reward ineptitude.
Welcome to the 2017 draft lottery, the NBA’s annual gathering of teams unable to make the playoffs in a league where 16 of 30 do.
For three months, it was a destination the Heat desperately sought to avoid, even with a late push their 11-30 midseason record leaving them at 41-41, out of the postseason by a mere tiebreaker.
The consolation prize? Not much consolation at all —a .5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, .6 percent chance at No. 2 and .7 percent at No. 3, otherwise 98.2 percent to draft at their No. 14 lottery seed, with only the first three picks determined by the random-but-weighted drawing at the New York Hilton Midtown.
When it comes to ESPN’s televised portion of the event, the Heat’s fate will be instant. If the Heat’s logo does not emerge from the first envelope opened by NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum, it will mean they have moved into one of the first three selections. Otherwise, the No. 14 pick it will be.
That quick and to the point — in a process that is anything but. BEHIND THE SCENES
Where: The actual lottery drawing to determine the first-round order of the 14 non-playoff teams for the June 22 NBA Draft in Brooklyn will take place in a separate room about an hour before ESPN’s broadcast.
Who: Select media members, NBA officials, representatives of the participating
teams and the accounting firm of Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawing. General Manager Andy Elisburg will be the Heat’s behind-the-scenes representative. All personnel in the drawing room will be required to relinquish cell phones and any other communication devices until the televised lottery results are announced.
Mechanics: Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered 1 through 14, will be placed in a lottery machine manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a manufacturer of state lottery machines. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing. There are no team logos on the pingpong balls.
Math: There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
Heat math: Because of their No. 14 seeding, the Heat will be assigned five of the 1,001 numerical combinations.
The process: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and are mixed for 20 seconds; then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds; then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix; then the third ball is drawn. There is an ensuing 10-second mix; then the fourth ball is drawn. The team assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second pick and then again for the third pick.
Limitations: If the same combination comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. If the one unassigned combination (11-12-13-14) is drawn, the balls are drawn to the top again.
Supervision: The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.
Completion: The random portion of the lottery determines only the first three selections. The remaining first-round draft positions will be determined by inverse order of final 2016-17 regular-season won-loss record, with the Heat the lone team at the lottery without a losing 2016-17 record. ON STAGE Where: The unveiling of the drawing results will be conducted on a specially designed stage at the New York Hilton Midtown.
Who: Each of the 14 lottery teams will be accounted for by a representative who will sit behind their team’s logo. The Heat’s on-stage representative is former Heat center and current team executive Alonzo Mourning, who also represented the team in 2015, when the Heat held seed and emerged with the No. 10 selection, used the next month on Duke forward Justise Winslow.
Secrecy/security: Denise Pelli, a partner in the accounting firm of Ernst & Young, overseas the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes before bringing them to the studio for the broadcast. Unlike the snafu at this year’s Oscars, there is only one set of envelopes, so therefore no opportunity for the wrong result to be announced.
The process: The announcement of the lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum in inverse order of lottery finish (No. 14 first, No. 13 second, and so forth). Neither Tatum nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the lottery results before the opening of the envelopes.
End game: If the Heat logo is not the first exposed, it means they have secured no worse than the
No. 3 selection.
The math: The Heat have a 1.8 percent chance of moving into one of the first three picks (.5 percent of No. 1; .6 percent of No. 2; .7 percent at No. 3), for a 98.2 percent chance of remaining at No. 14.
What follows: Because the Heat’s 2018 first-round pick (unless it is among the first seven selections) will go to the Phoenix Suns as part of the 2015 acquisition of guard Goran Dragic, the Heat cannot trade their 2017 first-round pick in advance of the draft, due to an NBA rule barring the trading of successive future first-round picks. The Heat, however, would be allowed to immediately trade the player selected once an official Heat choice has been announced.
The drama: Beyond the odds of the lottery themselves, the Los Angeles Lakers, seeded third, must remain in the top three, otherwise their selection goes to the Philadelphia 76ers. Also, if the Sacramento Kings (seeded eighth) move ahead of the 76ers (seeded fourth), the 76ers have the right to swap selections with the Kings.