Cubs championship hangover extending far into season

The Chicago Cubs woke up Monday morning in fourth place in the National League Central and a game under .500, at 18-19. They are 3 ½ games behind firstplace St. Louis and nine games behind their pace of a year ago, when they were 27-10 through 37 games. For a long time, the Cubs have wondered whether there would be a hangover from last fall’s cathartic World Series title, but hangovers don’t generally last for six weeks.

It isn’t just one thing ailing the Cubs. They recently endured a streak of seven straight games in which they committed at least one error. Their defensive efficiency — the rate at which they turn batted balls into outs — has gone from first in the majors in 2016 to 21st this year. They are hitting an NL-low .214 with runners in scoring position. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell are all flirting with the Mendoza Line. Of the eight members of their starting lineup, only Kris Bryant has an OPS above .750, and he missed the past three games with injury. They have scored just six runs in their past four games, three of them losses.

The Cubs might feel lucky to be starting a 10-game homestand tonight, but they are just 7-9 at home this year.

Still, the biggest culprit in the Cubs’ season-long slog through mediocrity, perhaps not surprisingly, has been starting pitching. The top four members of their vaunted 2016 rotation — Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks — have all regressed, with gains in ERA ranging from around one run, in the case of Lester, to around 2 ½ runs, in the case of Arrieta. All have seen their WHIPs rise accordingly, as well.

“Starting pitching drives the engine,” Cubs Manager Joe Maddon told reporters over the weekend. “When you’re doing that right, everything else has a better opportunity or chance. Your defense gets better. Contact is not as hard. Hitters don’t have to battle from behind all the time. There’s more pressure on the other side. All those things are interconnected. So as we pitch better, we’ll play better.”

Starting rotations often experience a decline in the year following a World Series run, with the added workloads and reduced recovery time exacting a toll. Perhaps the greatest example was the 2005-06 Chicago White Sox, whose rotation ERA went from 3.75 during their 2005 title run to 4.65 the next season, with more or less the same group.

Over the offseason and into the spring, it was fashionable to ponder whether the Cubs might have the makings of a dynasty, given the youthfulness of their everyday lineup, the strength of their farm system and the mighty revenues driving their engine. The organization’s strategy of growing its bats — with the bulk of the Cubs’ everyday players being products of their farm system — and importing its arms seemed like a sound one when the team was winning 103 games and captivating the nation on its way to a championship a year ago.

But now, with those same pitchers suddenly appearing worn out and in need of a collective breather, it is fair to wonder whether this group can turn it around in 2017, or if the Cubs, now dealing with enormous expectations, need to make some changes.