Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Who has the edge?
Will Dolphins be able to stay competitive?
When Dolphins run
RB Kenyan Drake (65 carries, 320 yards, 4.9 yards per carry) is coming off his first 100-yard game, and so far he’s showed big-play ability marked by toughness running between the tackles and speed getting to the corner. The Patriots, who are 26th against the run (120.8 yards allowed per game), have been vulnerable to long runs. But New England held Miami to 67 yards on 19 carries two weeks ago. The biggest key for Miami will be using the run to lead to advantageous thirddown situations. The biggest concern for Miami will be depth behind Drake.
Edge: Dolphins
When Patriots run
New England trampled Miami for 196 yards two weeks ago. Running backs Dion Lewis (112 carries, 590 yards, 5.3 yards per carry), Rex Burkhead (55 carries, 244 yards, 4.4 yards per carry) and James White (43 carries, 171 yards, 4.0 yards per carry) do enough to move the chains and keep the offense balanced. That’s important. Lewis rushed for 112 yards in the last meeting between these teams. Miami’s run defense (21st in NFL at 116.5 yards allowed per game) must be a factor. This is a big test for youngsters such as MLB Chase Allen and defensive ends Terrence Fede and Cameron Malveaux.
Edge: Patriots
When Dolphins pass
New England sacked QB Matt Moore seven times and hit him nine times when these teams last played. As a result Moore missed last week’s game against Denver. QB Jay Cutler (15 TDs, 11 INTs, 82.1 passer rating, 26th in NFL), who has missed two games due to injury this season, must somehow remain confident in his pass protection. New England is 29th in pass defense (255 yards allowed per game) but the Patriots make plays. CB Stephone Gilmore had a key interception before halftime two weeks ago and Pro Bowl S Devin McCourty is always a challenge. Miami likely needs at least three passing touchdowns to remain competitive. If WR DeVante Parker can become a factor, Miami has a chance here.
Edge: Patriots
When Patriots pass
QB Tom Brady (26 TDs, 4 INTs, 109.7 passer rating, first in NFL) had four touchdowns against Miami in the previous matchup. Pro Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski (suspension) won’t play. But the Patriots won a Super Bowl years ago without an injured Gronk. Wide receivers Brandon Cooks (53 receptions, 886 yards, 5 TDs) and Danny Amendola (46 receptions, 489 yards, 2 TDs) get help from running backs White (51 receptions, 410 yards, 2 TDs) and Burkhead (24 receptions, 204 yards, 3 TDs). Miami, which hit Brady eight times two weeks ago, is 15th in pass defense (223 yards allowed per game) but 27th in opponent passer rating (97.8). Miami’s pass rush must help its coverage, and its coverage must help the pass rush. Even then, good luck stopping Brady.
Edge: Patriots
Special teams
Miami made plays in this area last week, highlighted by a blocked punt. But that fake punt by the Patriots two weeks ago remains a fresh wound. Miami K Cody Parkey (13 of 14 FGs, 20 of 23 XPs) isn’t a concern. Rookie P Matt Haack (44.7 yards per punt, 25th in NFL) continues to learn. Miami must win the field position game, which means KOR/PR Jakeem Grant and coverage units must make game-changing plays. New England is always sound in special teams led by K Stephen Gostkowski (29 of 32 FGs, 35 of 36 XPs).
Edge: Patriots
Intangibles
Miami averages 25.2 points per game at Hard Rock Stadium and has beaten the Patriots there in three of the past four years . ...
Penalties are a factor for Miami, which has had at least 85 penalty yards in three of the past five games . ...
New England is on an eight-game winning streak. It hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any of those games and is averaging 28 points per game in the five road games . ...
New England coach Bill Belichick is known for taking away something from the opposing offense, and if he takes away WR Jarvis Landry the Dolphins’ offense is in big trouble . ...
Miami’s defense allowed just nine points in last week’s 35-9 victory over slumping Denver, but the Dolphins allowed at least 27 points in the previous six weeks, including a 31-28 victory over the Jets.
Edge: Patriots PREDICTION: Patriots 31, Dolphins 24