Poll: Nelson, Scott in virtual tie

A new poll shows U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in a dead heat with Gov. Rick Scott in the U.S. Senate race.

In a survey of 815 likely voters conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling of Jacksonville, Nelson had a 47 to 46 percent lead over Scott in the Nov. 6 election. A Mason-Dixon poll from July had Scott with a 47 to 44 percent lead.

Nelson has been in the lead in most recent polls, including Quinnipiac University and NBC/Marist. The movement in Nelson’s favor comes after he was behind in most polls earlier in the spring and summer, in the midst of a barrage of ads attacking him released by Scott’s campaign.

The long-term trend in Mason Dixon polls, conducted every few months since February 2017, show no decisive changes in the race, Mason-Dixon director Brad Coker said.

While Nelson remained strong with women and African Americans and Scott with men and whites, Nelson’s lead with Hispanics has grown by 10 points since July. He also pulled ahead of Scott with independents.

“These results also show that Nelson’s strength comes from voter groups that are less reliable than others in lower turnout mid-term elections – particularly minority and younger voters,” Coker said.

While Andrew Gillum’s campaign for governor and competitive congressional races in South Florida could increase minority turnout, Coker cautioned that the poll was taken Sept. 24 to 27 during the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, which may have sparked Republican voter interest.

“It could explain why Nelson may have had larger leads in several other polls conducted prior to last week, while this one shows him still in a toss-up contest,” Coker said.

“At least for the moment, the Supreme Court battle is casting a shadow in Florida.”

The margin of error in the poll is 3.5 percentage points.