Senate race could tip Florida’s balance of power

Seminole County seat up for grabs, but Republican miles ahead in fundraising

TALLAHASSEE — The balance of power in the Florida Senate could hinge on the outcome of a race in Seminole County next year, but Democrats are already falling behind in their efforts to pick up the ostensibly swing seat.

On paper, Democrats should have high hopes of winning Senate District 9, which includes all of Seminole County and part of southwest Volusia County. It’s currently held by GOP Sen. David Simmons, who can’t run again because of term limits.

Much of it overlaps with Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy’s congressional district, and Democrats have been making inroads in Seminole the past few years.

But 15 months away from the election, former Republican state Rep. Jason Brodeur of Sanford, who served in the House from 2010-18, is miles ahead in fundraising and name recognition.

Since 2016 he’s raised more than $2 million and spent more than $1.5 million between his campaign and political committee accounts combined.

Brodeur’s only opposition so far is Democrat Rick Ashby, who has raised $2,100 — most of it coming from a $1,600 personal loan — and spent $1,800.

Democrats, though, believe they’ll have enough time to get an opponent more prominent than Ashby to face Brodeur and back that person with spending by the party and outside groups.

“We’re confident we’ll have the resources to compete and a strong candidate to take on and defeat Jason Brodeur,” said Anders Croy, spokesman for Senate Victory, the group leading Democratic Senate campaign efforts.

Republicans currently hold a 23-17 advantage in the Senate over Democrats. If Democrats manage to pick up three seats next year, they’ll gain a 20-20 split and vital leverage in any redistricting talks that will redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2022.

The last time there was a 20-20 split, after the 1992 elections, the parties agreed to split their time in control of the Senate, with a Republican becoming Senate President for 1993 and a Democrat taking over for 1994.

The Democrats are targeting two seats in particular — one in MiamiDade County and the Seminole district, where Democrat Andrew Gillum lost to Republican Ron DeSantis in the governor’s race last year by just 0.5%.

“It’s a true, tough battleground district,” said Tallahassee-based Democratic consultant Steve Schale. “It’s going to take a candidate with the right kind of profile and the right kind of relationships in the district.”

Political and legal grounds have shifted since the last redistricting court cases in Florida, where the Florida Supreme Court rejected the initial congressional and state Senate maps drawn by the GOPled Legislature, ruling they were drawn to favor Republicans.

Democrats were able to pick up a handful of legislative and congressional seats in the eventual district maps approved by the court.

DeSantis’ appointment of three justices has resulted in a 6-1 conservative majority, wiping out the 4-3 liberal majority on the bench that rejected the redistricting plan. The court could overturn the precedents established in 2015 regarding the anti-gerrymandering Fair Districts amendments passed by voters in 2010, allowing for more GOP-friendly maps — if Republicans maintain control of the Senate.

Liberal groups such as the League of Women Voters, who were successful in their previous redistricting lawsuits, might not fare better in federal court either. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in June that it won’t review partisan gerrymandering cases, although it can still review maps for racial bias.

That reality has increased the stakes for the SD 9 race beyond the importance of a lone Senate seat.

“2020 is a critical election at every level of the ballot,” Croy said. “Redistricting definitely hangs over this cycle and Senate Victory feels the map is favorable for Democrats to pick up at least two seats and continue our march to the majority.”

Brodeur realizes redistricting is on the horizon as well and feels the pressure to keep the seat in GOP hands. Despite his lead in fundraising, he said he’s not taking anything for granted.

“I can see the maps just like everybody else. We recognize this is not going to be a gimme,” Brodeur said.