Florida, US could be next epicenter

Fears mount over recent acceleration of new virus cases

Concerns are mounting that Florida could emerge as an epicenter in the coronavirus pandemic with a World Health Organization official ringing the alarm about rising cases in the United States.

The latest state numbers show that known cases of the new coronavirus have risen to more than 1,400 people, or about twice the number it was just four days ago. Most of those cases are in South Florida, which is a hot zone for the virus in Florida.

WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told reporters Tuesday that 40% of new cases reported during the previous day are from the United States, according to a report by Reuters.

“We are now seeing a very large acceleration in cases in the U.S.,” Harris said when asked if the U.S. could become an epicenter of the outbreak. “So it does have that potential. We cannot say that is the case yet but it does have that potential.”

Nobody knows for sure how bad the outbreak could get in Florida and when it will peak. Testing has been limited, and drive-thru testing sites only recently opened.

But grim projections show the the virus’ toll could grow far worse in the Sunshine State, overwhelming hospitals and requiring sweeping restrictions on daily life for months rather than weeks that will inflict even greater trauma on Florida’s already wounded tourism-based economy.

One model developed by the organization Covid Act

Now forecasts that even with social distancing measures in place for the next three months, Florida hospitals would be overwhelmed by April 24 and 320,000 deaths would occur.

The model was created by a team of data scientists, engineers, and designers in partnership with epidemiologists and public health officials. Its goal is to provide information for leaders to take action.

Moving to stricter “shelter in place” mandatory restrictions would help to flatten the epidemic’s curve, according to the analysis. Putting those measures in place for three months would keep hospitals from becoming overloaded and keep the projected death toll to 8,000.

Taking no action would have hospitals overwhelmed by April 8 and result in the deaths of 432,000 Floridians, the model predicts.

Another projection by British researchers showed 2.2 million Americans could die if the government failed to take steps to slow the spread of the disease, according to a model developed by the Imperial College London.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has ordered bars closed statewide, and restaurants are authorized to offer only takeout and delivery. But the Republican governor has been reluctant to order residents to stay at home, as governors have done in other states.

Desantis said Tuesday he thinks such Draconian steps could cause other public health problems from suicide to child abuse.

“Some people think that the governor should just be a dictator and just order everyone imprisoned in their homes,” he said. “I don’t think that would be an effective approach. It certainly is not warranted in certain parts of the state.”

President Donald Trump said Tuesday he hopes to have the country reopened by Easter, which falls on April 12.

Some cities in parts of the state with more cases, such as Miami Beach, have gone further than the state and issued stay-at-home orders to residents.

DeSantis said he is concerned travelers from New York are infecting Floridians, and he’s ordered travelers from that region to isolate themselves for two weeks. New York has more than 21,600 confirmed cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Eighteen people have died from the virus so far in Florida, according to the latest update from state health officials.

Florida should be implementing “stringent” measures now to save lives, Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told reporters on a conference call Friday.

Infections that are happening now will produce a spike in patients who need intensive care at hospitals in two to four weeks, he said.

The virus has overwhelmed European nations, with doctors in Italy being forced to pick which patients receive limited lifesaving care and which must die. In Madrid, Spain, an iceskating rink is being converted into a temporary morgue.

The U.S., which has just more than 56,200 known cases of the virus, now ranks third behind Italy and China, according to Johns Hopkins University’s global database.

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