Tropical Storm Josephine forms in mid-Atlantic

Tropical Storm Josephine, which formed in the mid-Atlantic Thursday morning, is headed on a path toward the Caribbean islands, but National Hurricane Center forecasters said it is currently no threat to the U.S.

“We have it curving off the Atlantic coastline,” said Dennis Feltgen, with the National Hurricane Center. “We don’t see this, right now, as any threat to the state of Florida or the United States.”

Josephine is also a record-breaker because it’s the earliest 10th tropical storm on record.

“Josephine is the earliest tenth tropical storm on record in the Atlantic, with the next earliest tenth storm being Tropical Storm Jose on August 22, 2005,” the hurricane center noted in a forecast discussion posted at 11 a.m. Thursday.

At the 5 p.m. advisory, Tropical Storm Josephine was moving west-northwest at 16 mph toward the Caribbean islands with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and tropical storm-force winds extended about 80 miles “north from the storm’s center,” according to the advisory.

The system is expected to move generally west to north-westward across the tropical Atlantic over the next several days, according to the NHC. It is forecast to take a sharp turn east, keeping it off the U.S. East Coast.

Josephine is the first named storm in the Atlantic this month. Based on the latest advisory, it is not currently forecast to reach hurricane strength.

“It’s going to go into an environment where it’s going to start losing its strength, so that’s good,” Feltgen said. “It’s going to run into a bunch of wind shear in about four to five days.”

In July, there were five tropical storms: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias. Other named storms this year have included Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in midMay, making this the sixth straight year that a named storm formed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.

Virtually all estimates for this hurricane season predict an above-average number of storms, due to unusually warm ocean temperatures and global climate factors that are likely to reduce the highaltitude winds that can prevent the formation of hurricanes.

The hurricane experts at Colorado State University said in their latest forecast for the 2020 season, issued last week, that they expect 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes this year. That’s up from its July 8 forecast, in which they predicted 19 to 20 named storms.

If this latest prediction is accurate, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be the second-busiest on record, behind only 2005, the year that spawned 28 storms in total, including Katrina and Wilma.

Meanwhile, the conditions over the Atlantic that have been keeping storms at bay are about to expire. Dust carried across the ocean from Africa is disappearing, sea temperatures are creeping warmer, and storm-killing wind shears are going away — changes that are combining to clear the way for storms to form and grow stronger.