Dems push Puerto Ricans to go vote

Democratic strategists say Latino voter turnout overall is up in Florida with four days into early voting. However, they also say the turnout is being largely driven by Cubans, who tend to vote more Republican.

They say they are leaning on the equally large Puerto Rican population to counteract the trend and help deliver the state to Joe Biden.

The Democrats are trying to mobilize a large voting bloc that has traditionally lagged in turnout relative to Cubans in the state and isn’t as familiar with the process of early voting or mail-in ballots.

Florida Democratic political strategist Steve Schale said Friday that Puerto Rican turnout in the state is higher than in recent years, but it is “not necessarily where we want it to be.”

He referenced data from Hawkfish, a left-leaning political data agency, which shows Cuban voters in every age category casting more ballots than Puerto Rican voters as of Thursday’s data.

Cubans and Puerto Ricans in Florida makeup more than half of all Latinos in the state and nearly two-thirds of eligible Latino voters, according to the Pew Research Center.

Trump has solid backing from Cuban-American voters, especially in MiamiDade County, who for decades have been a reliable source of support for Republican candidates running statewide. Cuban-Americans account for nearly 30 percent of Hispanic voters in Florida, according to Equis Research.

The Republican president also has made significant inroads with Venezuelans and other Latin Americans by linking Biden and Democrats with socialism.

But Puerto Ricans, who make up about 27 percent of the state’s Hispanic voting population, are a more complicated bloc.

U.S. census figures for 2019 estimate there are roughly 1.2 million Puerto Ricans in the state and about 1.6 million Cubans.

But the population of Puerto Ricans in Florida has been growing by about 5% per year since 2017, said Carlos Vargas-Ramos, director of public policy for Center for Puerto Rican Studies in New York.

Ramos said the jump has been driven in large part by a wave of Puerto Ricans who came to the United States after Hurricane Maria struck the island in 2017. Many settled around the Interstate 4 corridor in Orlando and Tampa.

A sizable share have also found their way to parts of Broward and Miami-Dade, he said.

A large majority of those new arrivals are eligible voters who both Republicans and Democrats have tried to court.

Ramos said Puerto Ricans have not yet penetrated political institutions in the way that Cubans have been able to do by becoming elected to the Legislature. “In that sense, the Cuban population has a lead over any other group of Hispanics in the state of Florida.”

According to an analysis of census data by the Pew Research Center, Cubans have traditionally had one of the highest turnout rates in national elections. In 2016, 58% of eligible Cubans voted and only 46% of Puerto Ricans.

Ramos said many have used data points like this to suggest that Puerto Ricans are not interested in voting as much as other Latino populations.

But he said his research, gathered from a combination of census and voter data from 2000 to 2012, suggests that turnout among Puerto Ricans is actually above 80% when you count only Puerto Rican voters who are actually registered to vote — rather than those who are eligible.

Professor Fernando River a, director of the Puerto Rico Research Hub at the University of Central Florida, said a bevy of political organizations have increased their efforts to register Puerto Rican voters in recent months, as well as educate them about the process of voting in the United States.

Rivera said that education is important, given how voting happens in Puerto Rico.

“The day of the election is a holiday.” He said everyone is off from work; bars and liquor stores are closed; and voting happens in unison. “People are not familiar with the fact that you can vote two weeks earlier or that you can do it through mail.”

“That is a bit of a foreign concept for people in Puerto Rico and especially when they come here.”

Luis A. Miranda Jr., chairperson of Latino Victory, a progressive organization that has helped mobilize Latino voters toward Democratic candidates, said his organization has spent a lot of resources and efforts to register Puerto Rican voters, particularly in the I-4 corridor.

Lately, they also have used traditional advertising in Spanish radio and television, along with digital campaigns to target Puerto Rican voters and educate them about the process of early voting and mail-in ballots.

“That is the kind of work that I believe that in this cycle is going to end up increasing the Latino turnout, increasing the Puerto Rican turnout in I-4 in particular.”

He said a lot of his messaging has involved telling Puerto Ricans that in the United States there is not just “an election day, but an election cycle.”

Like other community organizers in Florida targeting Latinos, he said that message is particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic when voters are afraid of congregating in mass in one place on election day.

Although Puerto Ricans lean Democratic in their voting, many of them come to the United States and register as political independents, leaving them up for grabs in a sense.

This trend is modeled for most Latinos in the state.

According to a recent report by the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, Republicans make up about 25% of all estimated Latino voters in the state. Democrats are about 39% and independents about 36%.

A 2019 EquisLabs poll of 600 Puerto Rican voters in Florida showed that 63% intended to vote for the Democratic candidate for president in the 2020 election. However, only 67% said they were very motivated to vote, versus 78% of Republican-leaning Cubans also polled.

Jorge Duany, director of FIU’s Cuban Research Institute, estimates that nearly 60% of all Cubans in Florida will cast their vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election.

It is unclear exactly how Puerto Rican voters will break. Recent Republican campaigns in the state, like that of U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, have been able to make inroads with Puerto Rican voters.

On the island of Puerto Rico, where many in Florida still have strong ties and travel back and forth, political leaders like Wanda Vázquez Garced, the current governor on the island, have thrown their support toward President Trump.

Rivera said that his research shows overwhelming support for Biden from Florida Puerto Ric ans .“Bid en has the support,” he said.

Nonetheless, he said Trump doesn’t need a whole lot of support from Puerto Ricans and isn’t exactly expecting it.

“I think the campaign understands that they just need a little support,” he said. He mentioned a recent rally in Sanford in which Trump declared himself “about the best thing that ever happened to Puerto Rico.”

While Rivera said Trump’s messaging around the economy and jobs might not appeal to all Puerto Ricans, that isn’t necessarily the goal.

“5,000 votes here and there,” he said. “If they can get that kind of help from Puerto Rican voting blocs, that would be great for them .”

Miranda Jr. believes that Trump’s treatment of the island after Hurricane Maria will be a strong incentive for Puerto Ricans to be turned off by his campaign.

He said he hopes that the growing population in Florida will be more motivated than in recent years to turn out. In fact, he said, it will be crucial for Joe Biden and any other future Democratic challengers to stand a chance at winning the state.

“Puerto Ricans need to over-perform,” he said, pointing in particular to the large concentration of voters in Orlando and Tampa. “When we see that area over-performing, then we know we are doing much better for our Democratic candidates in Florida and ultimately to get the electoral votes that the state has.”