There’s a path to avoid play-in

MIAMI — What had stood as a complex equation for the Miami Heat at the NBA All-Star break has turned into basic math for the final month of the season.

Within reach of possibly moving as high as No. 4 in mid-February, Erik Spoelstra’s team effectively stands in a now-or-never spot when it comes to the Nos. 5-6 playoff seeds in the Eastern Conference, the final postseason berths that do not require participating in the harrowing play-in round.

Entering Wednesday, the Heat stood 2½ games behind the 37-28 No. 6 Brooklyn Nets.

Because Brooklyn already has won the first two games of the three-game season series against the Heat, that head-tohead tiebreaker already has been secured by the Nets, regardless of the outcome of the Heat’s March 25 home game against Brooklyn.

In essence, it means if the Nets go 9-8 the rest of the way, then to pass Brooklyn and secure No. 6 over Brooklyn, it would require a 12-4 finish for the Heat starting with Wednesday’s game against the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers.

Having regained their footing with a three-game winning streak, including Tuesday night’s 118-96 road victory over the Houston Rockets, the Nets still have several soft spots on their schedule, including home games against the Rockets, Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz and Minnesota Timberwolves, as well as road games against the Magic and Detroit Pistons.

Take care of business in those six and the task of avoiding the play-in becomes far simpler for Brooklyn.

The Heat, by contrast, have ample challenges ahead even beyond the two-game home set against the Cavaliers that concludes Friday night at MiamiDade Arena, also with road games against the Toronto Raptors, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers, as well as home games against the Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks and Knicks.

Fail to come up with wins in several of those, and it could make the remainder of the schedule moot regarding a direct ticket to the playoffs.

In addition, the Heat also have four back-to-back sets remaining, all involving road games, not necessarily the preferred path for a team reliant on 30-somethings such as Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love and Cody Zeller.

The first back-to-back set is Friday’s conclusion of this two-game set against the Cavaliers followed by a Saturday game in Orlando. The remaining three back-to-backs are all on the road, at Chicago-Detroit, Toronto-New York and then Philadelphia-Washington the final week of the season.

The Heat this season are 4-6 on the first nights of back-to-backs, 6-4 on the second nights.

While there had been considerable hope as recently as last week of catching the Knicks, who stand No. 5 in the East, the Heat went into Wednesday 3 ½ games behind New York, crushed by Friday night’s final-seconds home loss to the Knicks. At the All-Star break, the Heat were a half-game behind New York.

At 39-28, an 8-7 close would leave the Knicks at 47-35. To match that record, the Heat, starting Wednesday, needed a 12-4 close. The Heat also would have to win the two remaining games against the Knicks to secure that tiebreaker by virtue of a Southeast Division title after what would be a 2-2 season split (the Heat have lost the first two games of the four-game season series).

In the wake of the Knicks’ 112-105 home loss to the Charlotte Hornets, the possibility of a Heat fight to the finish with New York could come down to how the Knicks fare on their four-game western swing that opens Thursday against the Sacramento Kings. New York otherwise has a relatively soft closing schedule, with games against the Magic, Rockets, Pelicans and two against the Pacers.

While the Heat figure to push until the possibility of a top-six finish is extinguished, there also could be an approach of eventually resting the team’s veterans in advance of the play-in round, which could begin for the Heat within two days of their April 9 regular-season finale against the visiting Magic.

By sweeping their just-completed two-game home set against the Hawks, the Heat not only moved 2 ½ games up on Atlanta for No. 7 but also secured the tiebreaker by winning the season series 3-1.

The No. 7 seed hosts the No. 8 seed in a win-and-in game for the right to play the No 2 East seed in the best-of-seven opening round.

The loser of the No. 7-No. 8 game gets a second chance two days later to earn the No. 8 playoff seed by winning the play-in matchup against the visiting winner of the No. 9-No. 10 play-in game,

Entering Wednesday, the Heat were seeded to host the Hawks in the Nos. 7-8 game, with the Raptors seeded to host the Wizards in the Nos. 9-10 game.

The playoffs open April 15.

WILFREDO LEE/AP Udonis Haslem, shown Monday reacting to a play, and his Heat teammates face a difficult path to the playoffs as regular season winds down.