Can DeSantis-ousted prosecutor Andrew Warren win reelection?

TAMPA — At Tampa’s Martin Luther King Jr. Parade last year — a must-attend event for local pols — here came Suzy Lopez, Hillsborough’s state attorney, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis after he booted Andrew Warren from the job in a political firestorm.

As Lopez handed out beads and waved to paradegoers, Warren was greeting crowds and posing for pictures just down the parade route. Warren, who was fighting his ouster in the courts, wore a T-shirt declaring himself Hillsborough State Attorney. Lopez’s claim to the office was spelled out across her sun visor.

Now it’s official: Warren declared last week that he will try to wrest the job back from Lopez in the November election. Both candidates will claim to be the rightful officeholder.

Warren, who previously announced he would not run, said he changed his mind after a recent favorable federal appeals court ruling.

Already the candidates are taking aim.

“She walks into that building every day, pretending to be the acting state attorney,” Warren said. “That’s a slap in the face to the voters of Hillsborough County and an attack on the rule of law.”

And from the Lopez campaign’s senior strategist Ryan Smith: “Warren is soft on crime and more concerned about experimenting with the law than upholding it.”

In his five years in office, Democrat Warren embraced alternatives to prosecution and enacted policies aimed at improving fairness in the justice system.

Republican Lopez espouses a more traditional approach of tough prosecution. That includes pursuing cases for both major and minor crimes, seeking harsher consequences for criminals and stronger support of law enforcement.

Warren’s philosophy made him a champion of progressives and caught the attention of the conservative Republican governor, who accused him of refusing to enforce the law.

Lopez, meanwhile, enjoys robust support from police, though she has received skepticism from the local African American community, among others. One of her first acts was to rescind a policy Warren enacted that discouraged prosecuting cases arising from police bicycle and pedestrian stops, a practice linked to racial disparities.

She got a chilled response when she spoke in March to the local NAACP, as first reported by WTSP-Channel 10.

“You don’t understand how law enforcement treats us,” Yvette Lewis, president of the Hillsborough chapter, said at the meeting.

Lewis later told the Tampa Bay Times she was troubled that Lopez seemed to defer to law enforcement in making decisions.

“We need someone to look at a case with two open eyes and not one,” Lewis said. “We all want to live in safe communities.“

Tough on crime will no doubt resonate with many voters. Tom Gaitens, a Republican state committee person in Hillsborough, said now is “a wonderful time to be the law-and-order candidate.”

Former Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, a Democrat, said law enforcement is “firmly in Suzy’s corner, and that will matter in this election.”

Still, Warren is not unaware of the importance of a top prosecutor having an anti-crime attitude. The first bullet point on his campaign announcement touts a reduction in crime while he was in office.

“I made promises and I kept those promises,” he said.

Lopez, running since November, has both money and support.

As of this month, her campaign fundraising tally stands at almost $500,000. Her supporters include Hillsborough Sheriff Chad Chronister and former Tampa police Chief Brian Dugan, along with numerous prominent local lawyers.

But will that support translate to votes?

“The people that know the players the best in races like this oftentimes are the worst ones to ask about who’s going to win,” said Tampa attorney Paul Sisco, who is supporting Lopez. “Because we know what lawyers think and it’s such a small percentage of the Hillsborough vote. You’re far better off asking the folks on tractors in Plant City than the guys at the courthouse.”

Buckhorn predicts voters in differing camps: “the partisan camp that is going to vote Democrat or Republican; those that are so offended by how DeSantis removed Warren they will vote for him, and some of those may be Republicans; and those who think Suzy Lopez is doing a better job,” he said.

He said it’s all about voter turnout, with issues including marijuana and abortion on the ballot expected to drive voters to the polls.

Notably, Warren’s announcement includes a mention of “a woman’s right to choose.”

Democrats hold a slight advantage over Republicans in Hillsborough in their number of registered voters. The years that Warren was in office saw the county’s elections trending toward Democrats. That changed in 2022 when DeSantis handily won Hillsborough County in his race for reelection, with several local Republican candidates riding his coattails to victory. Now he’s projecting Hillsborough will soon swing Republican.

Prominent Tampa attorney Ralph Fernandez said he sent Warren’s defense fund $10,000 the day after DeSantis suspended him.

“I have known Suzy Lopez decades, and she is a wonderful person,” Fernandez said via email. “But the rule of law governs, and I proudly support Andrew and will help him regain his seat as the rightful choice of the people. My sign is up, my fundraising has started.”

Monique Worrell, Orange-Osceola state attorney, was suspended by DeSantis as well. She is challenging the governor’s action and seeking reelection this year, too.

DeSantis

Warren