You have all the watches, we have all the time, what now in the Ukraine?

I remember 12 years ago interviewing Gary Berntsen, the first CIA chief in Afghanistan. Berntsen had written a fascinating book, “Jawbreaker,” about his experiences in country. One comment he made about the future of the war stuck with me. He gave me the Afghan proverb “you have all the watches we have all the time.” He knew, even then, the Afghans would just wait us out knowing eventually public opinion would sway the other direction.

Twenty-five years after the end of the Vietnam War a symposium of military leaders from Vietnam and the U.S. met to discuss the war. I remember one American special forces colonel who commented to his Vietnam counterpart, “You never won a battle.” His response was telling: “You never realized winning battles wasn’t the point.” The Vietnamese also knew they could never beat American might, but they could win the other battle, the hearts and minds of the American public.

You would think this is a relatively new approach by our enemies, but it really isn’t. Lincoln in the Civil War was concerned with public opinion going into the elections of 1864. His counterpart, Jefferson Davis, and General Robert E. Lee knew an attack into the North might sway public opinion toward a peaceful settlement. This was one of the motivating factors in Lee going north in what ultimately became the Battle of Gettysburg!

So many American military leaders like George Patten looked at war as if it were a football game. The idea was to march down the field and capture the adversary’s Capital. It is this approach that ultimately created the break between General McArthur and President Truman. McArthur wanted to advance down the field; Truman knew the political reality is this would lead to another World War.

So how does this apply to our current situation in the Ukraine? I’m not sure what the answer is in terms of the political situation. The Domino theory of Communist Russia trying to get back old and new territory is more believable here than the same theory was in Vietnam. President Zelensky, a former actor, knows the importance of keeping American public opinion on his side but it’s starting U.S. economy.

But my concern is perception, something very important in a world where a sign of weakness could be disastrous. We should not enter a conflict militarily or economically if we aren’t there to win. Our adversaries are watching us and if their perception is we have all the watches and they have all the time, they will wait us out every time and act accordingly! Marty Pay is a former radio talk show host. He also is a longtime business owner in Kern County and a local university professor.