El Nino makes winter forecast a hazy call
For those already pulling out sweaters and boots and hoping for a cold, snowy winter, the coming months could be disappointing, thanks to the influence of a strengthening El Nino.
Much of the northern half of the country is forecast to see greater chances for higher than normal temperatures, thanks to a combination of El Nino and ongoing patterns of above-average heat in general, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predictions. That’s especially the case for Maine and parts of western Washington and Oregon.
Across the South and much of the Atlantic coast into southern New England, the forecast calls for greater chances of a wetter than normal winter, said NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Parts of the Northwest, Mountain West and Great Lakes are more likely to see below-normal precipitation.
“El Nino is here and still growing stronger,” said Robert Rohde, lead scientist for Berkeley Earth, an independent nonprofit focused on climate analysis. The naturally occurring climate pattern occurs when trade winds weaken over the tropical Pacific Ocean and push warmer water east toward South America.
The combination of El Nino and the abnormally warm temperatures in the oceans and atmosphere make it harder to accurately predict what may happen in the months ahead, meteorologists and climate scientists say.
How El Nino typically affects winter in the United States:
● The southern third of the U.S. typically experiences wetter than average conditions, while the northern third sees higher chances for below-normal precipitation.
● Conditions can be much wetter on the Gulf Coast and in Florida.
● Wetter than normal in parts of California.
● Drier than normal in the Ohio Valley and the Northwest.
● Increased chances for tornadoes in central and southern Florida.
Lingering warm ocean temperatures make the forecast for the coming months particularly challenging this year, meteorologist Scott Handel, the climate center’s head of forecast operations, wrote in a Monday forecast.