Steady and Sensible

President Trump outlines path ahead for Afghanistan

President Donald Trump took to the air Monday night to outline future U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan. And it sounded like, well, more of the same. But is that really a bad thing?

We have been at war in Afghanistan for nearly 16 years. And so far there has been no clear pat to anything resembling victory.

We can’t even say for sure what victory would look like. Perhaps the best prediction came from Gen.

John Nicholson, the commander of our forces in Afghanistan, who told Congress in February that the likely outcome was “a stalemate where the equilibrium favors the government.”

Not exactly the all-out victory over the Taliban that President Trump and most Americans would like, but probably as realistic as it gets.

The facts are Afghanistan’s U.S.-backed government is fragile. The Taliban has come back from near-defeat and they, along with the Islamic State and other insurgent groups, control somewhere between 35 percent and 60 percent of the country. And Pakistan continues to give the rebels aid and comfort.

President Trump announced a modest U.S. troop surge in the country—up to 4,000, about 50 percent more than are there now—and put no timetable on how long we would be involved in Afghanistan, saying the goal has shifted from nation-building to results. The president also had some tough talk for Pakistan. But while the U.S. could, hopefully, significantly block supply lines from that country to the insurgents, it’s unclear what else could be done. Economic sanctions are largely futile since China, a key ally of Pakistan, is always ready to step in. China’s involvement also makes military action against Pakistan problematic.

Basically, President Trump’s Afghanistan strategy seems to focus on containment and management of the Taliban and insurgents, while supporting the current government. The rhetoric may use the term “victory,” but the actions say something different.

And that may be the best we can hope for. While on the campaign trail, the president said he would pull U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. It sounded good but was rash. Now that he’s in the Oval Office, President Trump is beginning to understand the realities of what we can expect to accomplish in the region. His outline Monday for the path ahead was studied and sensible.

We can expect our troops to be in Afghanistan for quite some time. But the truth is there may not be any other choice.