Caleb Williams tops two-round projections after the Super Bowl
With another victory over the San Francisco 49ers, this time in Super Bowl LVIII, the Kansas City Chiefs remain the dragon the rest of the NFL will continue to chase and attempt to slay as long as twotime MVP Patrick Mahomes makes Arrowhead his home office.
The focus of the pro football world now shifts toward the Motor City, where the 2024 NFL draft will take place at the end of April.
Of course, most of the intrigue begins with what the Chicago Bears will once again do with the first overall pick.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles could continue to build around Justin Fields by drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. (a generational talent) or he could select Caleb Williams to replace Fields. Or Poles could trade the top pick for a king’s ransom to a quarterback-needy team — there are plenty of those in the NFL.
The Commanders, Patriots, Falcons, Vikings and Raiders are at the top of the list.
The situation with Russell Wilson seemed to sour in Denver toward the end of the season. The Giants (Daniel Jones), Saints (Derek Carr) and Steelers (Kenny Pickett) will at least do their due diligence with this crop of signal-callers.
Of course, some of these teams might prefer trading for Fields. The discount would be significant. Trading up to the top spot would likely require multiple first-rounders, plus other assets, while dealing for the former Buckeye would probably take a Day 2 and a Day 3 pick.
If Poles can’t find the “Godfather Offer” he’s seeking for the first overall pick, my guess is he’ll stay put and take Williams, then trade Fields to the top bidder.
We have the next two-plus months to dissect the possibilities, and every other aspect of the draft.
The NFL offseason is a myth. Draft season has officially begun.
Here are some key dates going forward before we get to the draft in Detroit (April 25-27):
▪ Feb. 20-March 5: Franchise/transition player designation period
▪ Feb. 27-March 4: NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis
▪ Early March: Colleges can begin hosting pro days
▪ March 13: New league year begins at 1 p.m. (i.e. free agency)
Mock preamble
This is an attempt at figuring out the best players available in this season’s draft class, and which teams they’d match up well with considering the current draft order courtesy of Nfl.com. The closer we get to draft day, the more I’ll attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.
Last season, I was the third-most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print, according to The Huddle Report. I’m tied for first overall (out of 172) over the past five years.
The draft has become the Super Bowl of the NFL’S second season — the NFL doesn’t have an offseason — and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.
Follow me on X (formerly known as Twitter) Uteddiebrown so we can continue the conversation.
Here’s an updated version of my 2024 NFL mock draft, now through two rounds:
First round
1. Chicago from Carolina (2-15) — Caleb Williams, QB, USC, Jr.
I’m confident Williams will be the first overall pick barring some unforeseen revelations during the draft process. I’m also fairly certain the Bears will be the team selecting the former Heisman winner unless someone knocks their socks off with a trade offer. Williams is special off-platform, but he’ll have to protect the ball better in the pros — he had 33 career fumbles in three seasons of collegiate action. He would be Trojans coach Lincoln Riley’s third quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy and go first overall, joining Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Top needs: WR, Edge, OL
2. Washington (4-13) — Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina, So.
Will the Commanders’ new GM Adam Peters go all-in and swap picks with the Bears to land Williams, a D.C. native? Or will Peters stay here and decide between the other two bona fide first-round QBS in this draft class: Maye or Jayden Daniels? Both would be a good fit in new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid-type system. Maye’s prototypical size (6-foot-4, 230 pounds), elite arm talent and ability as a runner would make him a formidable challenger to incumbent Sam Howell for the starting job next season. Top needs: Edge, QB, DB
3. New England (4-13) — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State, Jr.
Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft deciding to mutually part ways is the official end of an era. Eliot Wolf, the top executive in charge of personnel, now has control of the 53-man roster and will reportedly be working closely with new head coach Jerod Mayo. Addressing the quarterback position this offseason, whether in free agency or the draft, has to be the top priority. Perhaps, the Patriots aren’t sold on Jayden Daniels as a top-3 pick, so they take the best player in the draft instead. If you were to “Weird Science” a wide receiver, the computer would almost certainly produce Harrison. The consensus All-american is a route tactician who features prototypical size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds), strong hands and athleticism with Hall of Fame NFL lineage (he’s the son of Colts legend Marvin Harrison). The last receiver to be drafted this high was Calvin Johnson in 2007, and Harrison has that type of potential. Top needs: QB, T, WR
4. Arizona (4-13) — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU, Jr.
Would GM Monti Ossenfort trade down if Harrison was off the board? That will likely depend on a team being willing to pay a premium for Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers or one of the top tackles. Nabers’ body control and route-running are topnotch, plus he’s elite after the catch and a terror in the open field. The gap between him and Harrison isn’t as wide as some may think. Top needs: WR, CB, G
5. L.A. Chargers (5-12) — Joe Alt, T, Notre Dame, Jr.
For me, this pick comes down to a pass catcher or pass protector. Either way, new head coach Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz will have franchise QB Justin Herbert’s best interests in mind. The massive Irish tackle (6-8, 315) amassed several All-american honors after another successful season in South Bend and is one of two blue chip tackle prospects in this class. Keeping Herbert healthy and upright is the surest way to improve the Chargers’ fortune. Top needs: CB, RB, DL
6. New York Giants (611) — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington, Jr.
The G-men will definitely be in the quarterback discussion leading up to the draft, but if they decide to give Daniel Jones another shot, they’ll need to find him a true No. 1 receiver. Odunze features elite size (6-3, 215), speed and strength. He had 32 catches of 20-plus yards in 2023, second most in the FBS (only Nabers had more). Top needs: RB, G, CB
7. Tennessee (6-11) — Olu Fashanu, T, Penn State, Jr.
It looks like Will Levis will be the starting QB in 2024 for the Titans, so GM Ran Carthon’s next assignment is upgrading Levis’ protection. Fashanu would’ve likely ended up in the first-round discussion had he declared last season. There’s still room for growth in the run game, but he’s already an elite pass-protector and could easily go in the top-5. Top needs: WR, CB, OL
8. Atlanta (7-10) — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU, Sr.
Daniels’ skill set and stature is very reminiscent of three-time All-pro QB Randall Cunningham, and he would fit nicely with an offense already featuring Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner had a historic season in Baton Rouge, breaking Joe Burrow’s NCAA passing efficiency record with a rating of 208 as a senior. He also produced 3,812 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. He added 1,134 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground for good measure. Top needs: QB, WR, Edge
9. Chicago (7-10) — Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama, Jr.
The Bears defense made legitimate strides after Poles dealt for Montez Sweat in October. Turner would pair nicely with Sweat. He was overshadowed by the NFL’S Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. his previous two seasons at Tuscaloosa — he had 8.5 sacks as a true freshman in 2021 — but he’s capable of being a star in his own right. This season, the AP All-american added some bulk to his frame and displayed more power to go with his already impressive speed-rush capabilities. Top needs: WR, Edge, OL
10. New York Jets (710) — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia, Jr.
Protecting a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers has to be the highest priority for GM Joe Douglas if he wants Rodgers to last more than four plays in 2024, but the top two tackles are gone. Bowers is a top-3 talent, whose presence would create more space for Garrett Wilson to operate on the outside. The two-time Mackey Award winner produced 175 receptions for 2,538 yards and 26 TDS in three seasons for the two-time champion Bulldogs. Top needs: OL, WR, S
11. Minnesota (7-10) — Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State, Jr.
I anticipate the Vikings doing their due diligence on this class of quarterbacks (and potentially moving up in the draft) if they’re unable to resign Kirk Cousins, but sack artist Danielle Hunter will be one of the most sought after free agents this offseason, and GM Kwesi Adofo-mensah would be fortunate here if one of the top edge rushers in the draft were still available. Like Penn State’s Fashanu, Verse would’ve likely been a first-round pick had he declared after last season. He produced nine sacks after transferring from Albany to Tallahassee for his sophomore season. The AP All-american followed that up with another nine sacks to help the Seminoles finish the regular season undefeated. Top needs: QB, Edge, OL
12. Denver (8-9) — Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo, Jr.
Don’t let the small-school pedigree fool you. Placing Mitchell on the same field as Patrick Surtain Jr. would create a no-fly zone in the Mile High City. He was clearly the best cornerback in Mobile at the Senior Bowl. Mitchell is a proven ball-hawk who wins with a mixture of elite athleticism and physicality. Top needs: Edge, LB, CB
13. Las Vegas (8-9) — Jer’zhan Newton, DL, Illinois, Jr.
This is another spot where
a new coaching staff likely means a new QB, but the top three prospects are off the board. The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year may be undersized (6-2, 295) for some teams, but Newton has been a disruptive force the last two seasons against the run and pass. He could go in the top 10 when it’s all said and done if he aces the draft process. Top needs: QB, DL, IOL
14. New Orleans (9-8) — Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama, So.
Shutdown corner (when healthy) Marshon Lattimore has been the subject of trade rumors due to a large option bonus that will be paid out a week before the 2024 season kicks off. Based on upside, Arnold could be the top cornerback on some draft boards. He’s relatively inexperienced at the position — he was a former safety recruit — but he’s been one of the better run defenders at the position and has proven a quick-study in coverage. He produced a Sec-best 17 passes defended and five interceptions in 2023. Top needs: LB, DL, DB
15. Indianapolis (9-8) — Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State, Jr.
Wide receiver will be GM Chris Ballard’s top priority if the Colts lose Michael Pittman Jr. in free agency. Coleman, a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist, features a combination of size (6-4, 215), strength and speed uncommon in receivers. Top needs: WR, DB, DL
16. Seattle (9-8) — Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas, Jr.
Losing Leonard Williams in free agency could make this pick a necessity. In hopes of helping the Seahawks lessen the gap with NFC West rival San Francisco, new head coach Mike Macdonald will want to build the defense in the image of the Ravens group he coordinated into a top-5 unit the last two seasons. Murphy is a former four-star recruit who shares a similar skill-set and physical traits with All-pro Justin Madubuike. As a true junior, he’s one of the highest-ceiling d-linemen in this draft class. Top needs: LB, DL, IOL
17. Jacksonville (9-8) — Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA, Sr.
The Jaguars could lose Josh Allen in free agency. Latu specializes in hand-to-hand combat, features a pro-ready arsenal of pass-rush moves and became the first Bruin to win the Lombardi Award (outstanding lineman) and Hendricks Award (best defensive end) last season. Medical evaluations of a neck injury the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year suffered during his time with Washington will have a big impact on his draft stock. Top needs: WR, Edge, IOL
18. Cincinnati (9-8) — Taliese Fuaga, T, Oregon State, Jr.
Both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are free agents for the Bengals, but the top four wide receivers are off the board here, so Cincy fortifies Joe Burrow’s protection (never a bad idea). Fuaga is a well-rounded mauler who could replace Jonah Williams at right tackle if he departs in free agency. The second-team AP All-american would be the Beavers’ first offensive lineman ever selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Top needs: WR, TE, DL
19. L.A. Rams (10-7) — Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa, Jr.
We witnessed the Rams’ defense undergo a youth movement last season. Adding
difference makers in the secondary and rushing the passer via free agency and the draft should allow the group to take a step forward in 2024. Dejean can play outside or inside at cornerback, and even safety due to his size (6-1, 207) and speed combo. He’s also one of this draft’s premier playmakers. Top needs: IOL, DB, LB
20. Pittsburgh (10-7) — Jackson Powers-johnson, C, Oregon, Jr.
As of this week, Justin Fields is most-likely to play under center for the Steelers next season at -125 odds on Draftkings Sportsbook. The odds of Fields staying in Chicago is +200. If a trade happens, I’d expect GM Omar Khan to primarily focus on upgrading the center and tackle positions in free agency and the draft. Powers-johnson entered the Senior Bowl as a fringe first-rounder, and only helped himself with his performance. He was an unanimous All-american and first-ever Pac-12 player to win the Rimington Award (nation’s top center). Top needs: CB, C, WR
21. Miami (11-6) — JC Latham, T, Alabama, Jr.
Durability has become a concern for the Dolphins’ O-line, with Terron Armstead, Robert Hunt and Connor Williams all missing time. Latham is a super-sized tackle (6-6, 360) with elite strength and movement skills. Top needs: DL, IOL, WR
22. Philadelphia (11-6) — Kool-aid Mckinstry, CB, Alabama, Jr.
The Eagles’ aging secondary struggled mightily last season, especially down the stretch. Mckinstry was first-team ALL-SEC as a true sophomore. He features prototypical size (6-1, 194) with speed and brings physicality in coverage and against the run. He’s also proven to be a dynamic punt-returner. Top needs: RB, WR, LB
23. Houston from Cleveland (11-6) — Tyler Guyton, T, Oklahoma, Jr.
Adding more talent along the offensive line makes sense, given the injuries the group suffered last season, and the gem they have under center. Guyton played right tackle for the Sooners, but has the prototypical size and premium athletic traits to switch to the left side in the pros. Top needs: T, DL, CB
24. Dallas (12-5) — Amarius Mims, T, Georgia, Jr.
Both Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz are free agents. Mims is still very raw, and dealt with multiple ankle injuries last season, but he towers (6-7, 340) over most of the competition and he moves easy considering his size. His athletic potential and his 2022 tape will be hard to ignore. Top needs: OL, CB, RB
25. Green Bay (9-8) — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson, Jr.
The Packers dealt Rasul Douglas to Buffalo at the trade deadline and former first-rounders Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes have both been plagued by injury issues. Wiggins might need to add some strength to his frame (6-2, 185), but he already has elite ball skills and athletic abilities. Top needs: G, CB, S
26. Tampa Bay (9-8) — Graham Barton, OL, Duke, Sr.
I feel like Baker Mayfield has done enough to keep the Buccaneers from targeting a signal-caller in the first round — the playoff victory over the Eagles certainly didn’t hurt — so GM Jason Licht can focus on replacing retiring Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen. Barton could thrive at both tackle or guard (and possibly center) in the NFL. Some scouts will question his size/length for the tackle position — he’s 6-5, 314 pounds — but 34 of his 39 career starts were at left tackle for the Blue Devils (the other five were at center). He’s a technically sound, sticky blocker with quickness and competitive tendencies that deserves first-round consideration. Top needs: IOL, S, LB
27. Arizona from Houston (10-7) — Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri, Sr.
The Cardinals landed one of the best receivers in this draft (Malik Nabers) with their first pick of the first round. Here they can continue to build a young and talented secondary. Rakestraw is a scheme-diverse corner who can play outside or in the slot. He’s lean, and I wish he had more ball production, but he was regularly left on islands against SEC receivers and thrived. Top needs: WR, CB, G
28. Buffalo (11-6) — Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU, Jr.
Stefon Diggs doesn’t seem happy and Gabe Davis will likely be seeking a big payday elsewhere in free agency. Thomas’ physical gifts are off the charts. He’s 6-foot-4 and can hit 22 mph on the GPS. Thomas is a big-bodied vertical threat who has only scratched the surface of his potential. With Josh Allen throwing him the ball, he could develop into a star. Top needs: Edge, S, WR
29. Detroit (12-5) — Bralen Trice, Edge, Washington, Jr.
The Lions have several defensive linemen who will be entering a contract season in 2024. Trice shares similar physical traits with Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson and is relentless against the pass or run. Top needs: CB, DL, G
30. Baltimore (13-4) — Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington, Jr.
Starting guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler will both be free agents in March. Fautanu’s heavy hands and impressive athleticism has been on display at tackle for the Huskies the last two seasons, but less-than-ideal arm length might cause a team to kick him inside at the next level. Regardless, he has Pro Bowl-level talent. Top needs: G, DL, WR
31. San Francisco (12-5) — Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State, Jr.
In the aftermath of another devastating Super Bowl loss, there are two points of emphasis the 49ers could use to guide them back to another championship opportunity. First, upgrade Brock Purdy’s pass protection. Second, pump some juice back into a once fearsome pass rush. Robinson’s still developing his technique, but his firststep explosiveness and speedto-power variation is a rare commodity. Combining his extremely rare athletic traits with defensive line coach Kris Kocurek’s guidance could create a nightmare for the rest of the league. Top needs: DL, OL, DB
32. Kansas City (11-6) — Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon, Jr.
The champs have one wide receiver on their current roster who doesn’t force Patrick Mahomes to constantly turn water into wine, and that’s Rashee Rice. Franklin features a rare size-speed-agility combination and projects to be a major open-field, bigplay threat. For being such a burner, he’s actually a crafty route-runner too. Top needs: WR, DL, T
Second round
33. Carolina — Kingsley Suamataia, T, BYU, So.
If Bryce Young has any hopes of reaching his full potential, the Panthers will need to significantly upgrade one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Suamataia was a five-star recruit who originally landed with Oregon before transferring to Provo. The 6-foot-6, 325 pound lineman came in at No. 3 on Bruce Feldman’s annual college football “Freaks List” behind only South Carolina wide receiver Nyckoles Harbor — a true freshman last year — at No. 1 and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 2. Top needs: OL, Edge, WR
34. New England — Bo Nix, QB, Oregon, Sr.
35. Arizona — Jordan Morgan, T, Arizona, Sr.
36. Washington — Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri, Sr.
37. L.A. Chargers — T’vondre Sweat, DL, Texas, Sr.
By adding Notre Dame’s Alt and Sweat, the Chargers become tougher and more dogged in the trenches. The Outland Trophy winner features an immovable base (64, 362) against the run and is
capable of collapsing the pocket as a pass rusher. Top needs: CB, RB, DL
38. Tennessee — Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas, Jr.
39. N.Y. Giants — Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia, Jr.
40. Washington from Chicago — Kamren Kitchens, S, Miami, Jr.
41. Green Bay from N.Y. Jets — Cooper Beebe, OL,
Kansas State, Sr.
42. Minnesota — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington, Sr.
43. Atlanta — Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama, Sr.
44. Las Vegas — JJ Mccarthy, QB, Michigan, Jr.
45. New Orleans from Denver — Junior Colson, LB, Michigan, Jr.
46. Indianapolis — Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan, Sr.
47. N.Y. Giants from Seattle — Dominick Puni, G, Kansas, Sr.
48. Jacksonville — Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina, Sr.
49. Cincinnati — Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky, Jr.
50. Philadelphia from New Orleans — Trey Benson, RB, Florida State, Jr.
51. Pittsburgh — Kalen King, CB, Penn State, Jr.
52. L.A. Rams — Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M, Jr.
The Rams’ defense played much better than expected last season, a testament to the coaching staff, but there’s still holes in the front seven. Cooper catapulted himself into a borderline first-round prospect with a dominant junior season for the Aggies — 83 tackles, 17 tackles for loss and eight sacks. Tack on his top coverage skills, and you have one of the best linebackers in a weaker-than-usual class. Top needs: IOL, DB, LB
53. Philadelphia — Payton Wilson, LB, NC State, Sr.
54. Cleveland — Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan, Sr.
There are several players on an elite Browns defense facing free agency. Jenkins’ sack totals won’t impress anyone, but he routinely draws a double-team, so there’s still upside at the next level. His abilities as a run defender give him a very high floor as a pro. Top needs: LB, DL, Edge
55. Miami — Ladd Mcconkey, WR, Georgia, Jr.
56. Dallas — TJ Tampa, CB, Iowa State, Sr.
57. Tampa Bay — Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota, Sr.
58. Green Bay — Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State, So.
59. Houston — Caelen Carson, CB, Wake Forest, Jr.
60. Buffalo — Jonah Elliss, Edge, Utah, Jr.
61. Detroit — Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky, So.
62. Baltimore — Ja’lynn Polk, WR, Washington, So.
63. San Francisco — Patrick Paul, T, Houston, Jr.
64. Kansas City — Ja’tavion Sanders, TE, Texas, Jr.