Hopes dim for migrant reform
Backers pursue bills; foes say no more time is left
Immigration reform, the centerpiece of President Barack Obama’s second-term domestic agenda, lost momentum amid the partisan brinkmanship that led to the government shutdown. Some reform opponents believe the profound lack of trust between House Republicans and the White House all but ensures the issue won’t proceed this year.
Obama, however, last week signaled that he is not surrendering on one of the issues he ran on when he was first elected president in 2008.
In an interview with Univision’s Los Angeles affiliate, Obama indicated he will press forward on immigration reform immediately after the dust settles from the fiscal fight and demand that House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and other Republican leaders
allow a vote on a Senate-passed comprehensive bill.
“And if I have to join with other advocates and continue to speak out on that, and keep pushing, I’m going to do so because I think it’s really important for the country,” Obama said. “And now is the time to do it.”
Reform supporters have remained optimistic that the GOPcontrolled House of Representatives will consider several immigration-related bills in November. Their hope is that the House will pass legislation that could lead to negotiations with the Democrat-controlled Senate.
On June 27, the upper chamber passed a comprehensive bill that includes a massive investment in border security and a pathway to citizenship for many of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants who have settled in the United States. Most observers believe, as a practical matter, lawmakers have at most a few months to act on immigration reform before Congress is paralyzed by 2014 midterm-election politics.
But many of the crucial pieces of immigration legislation in the House, such as a bill that could address the legal status of undocumented immigrants already settled in the U.S., have yet to surface.
Recognizing that time is running out, immigration activists and reform advocates are pressuring lawmakers in pursuit of a breakthrough before Thanksgiving or, at the latest, midDecember.
On Oct. 5, thousands of reform advocates waving U.S. flags, chanting and pounding drums marched through downtown Phoenix as part of a nationwide day of action.
Three days later, Rep. Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., was among a group of pro-reform Congress members arrested for blocking a street near the U.S. Capitol during a major rally and march in Washington, D.C.
Last week saw more demonstrations, with hundreds rallying at Phoenix’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices to protest the Obama administration’s deportation policies.
And later this month, a group of business leaders affiliated with the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce is expected to take part in a “National Immigration Fly-In to Washington, D.C.” The Oct. 28-29 event is being organized under the auspices of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other groups that support reform from the right.
Reform supporters say if the House delays action on immigration reform until 2014, it’s as good as dead because there will be little appetite to debate such a hot-button issue in a congressional midterm election year. If that happens, there likely won’t be another serious legislative push until after the 2016 presidential race and immigration advocates in the interim probably will turn their focus entirely from lobbying Congress to urging Obama to expand the executive branch’s deferred-deportation program to include millions more undocumented immigrants.
Despite the distractions of the recent Syria crisis and the bitter fiscal fight, reform proponents say they are heartened by the fact that influential House Republicans are still inclined to press ahead with legislation. Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte of Virginia have been crafting a bill that would address the legal status of the young undocumented immigrants commonly called “dreamers” while Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 GOP vice-presidential nominee and a possible 2016 White House candidate, is said to be working on a proposal directed at the broader undocumented population.
The impact of the past several weeks of partisan bitterness on the immigration-reform dynamics remains unclear, with some House Republicans harboring hard feelings toward Obama and others seeing a positive post-shutdown opportunity to govern “and show the country that wecan do our jobs,” said Tamar Jacoby, president of ImmigrationWorks USA, a national coalition of business groups that backs immigration reform. Which House GOP faction wins out in the short term remains to be seen, although the bruised egos represent a fresh challenge for reform supporters.
“House Republicans will not do this if they see it as ‘the president just beat us and now he’s going to shove this down our throats,’ ” Jacoby said. “That is just not a way to get it done. What could potentially make it doable is if people see it as good for the country, good for the party and something that is basically framed as a conservative reform, which is the opposite of doing something because President Obama is muscling them.”
‘Could see floor action’
Boehner this year frustrated some immigration activists by declaring the Senate’s comprehensive bill dead on arrival in the House and by signaling that any of the other smaller bills must be supported by a majority of his GOP conference. The piecemeal approach also likely would include bills focusing on border security, visas for foreign workers and immigration enforcement. Five measures already have cleared committees, so Boehner could easily set aside a week this fall to hold a series of immigration votes. He has said doing nothing on immigration is not an option.
“We’re still committed to moving forward on step-bystep, common-sense reforms,” Boehner spokesman Michael Steel told The Arizona Republic in an e-mail. “The Judiciary Committee has already passed several bills that could see floor action.”
Rep. Ed Pastor, D-Ariz., said he believes that House Republican leaders are sincere and sees a potential opening for immigration reform in the next several weeks, with the latest round of partisan haggling over the debt limit now ended. If five or so immigration bills are passed, the legislation could be bundled and provide the basis for a joint House-Senate confer- ence committee that would hammer out a final version based on the legislation that each chamber passed.
“Paul Ryan has been meeting with various Democrats, and I think Paul Ryan is probably the biggest advocate for getting something done,” said Pastor, the most-senior member of Arizona’s House delegation. “I think Boehner would like to do something. Cantor would like to do something. As majority leader, I guess he is stepping in and moving things forward. That’s why I say I’m optimistic.”
What, precisely, the House Republicans have in mind for the 11 million undocumented immigrants remains unclear. Obama and the Democrats have said a pathway to citizenship is a must, but many GOP members are wary of anything that conservative activists could portray as “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants who either crossed the border illegally or overstayed a visa.
“I will continue to work with my colleagues to fix our immigration system,” Ryan said in a written statement provided to
The Republic shortly before the shutdown began. “Chairman Goodlatte has argued for earned legalization rooted in fairness and the rule of law. He opposes — as I do — a special pathway to citizenship, which would penalize those who played by the rules.”
Last week, Kevin Seifert, Ryan’s spokesman, reiterated that Ryan “remains hopeful that the House will consider reforms to our broken immigration system” but also acknowledged, that as House Budget Committee chairman, Ryan’s time recently has been consumed with getting a budget agreement.
“Congressman Ryan continues to listen to his constituents and work with his colleagues on this issue,” Seifert said.
One option that Ryan is believed to be exploring would address the unauthorized immigration population without providing a “special pathway” for them. The immigrants would have to work toward citizenship through existing channels, such as having their children or employers sponsor them.
That route is viewed as tougher than allowing them to apply for citizenship on their own after they receive permanent residency.
“A basic broad outline that you hear from people is that people would be on some kind of probation for a while, and then they could use existing channels,” Jacoby said. “The employer, marriage, kids are the existing channels.”
An estimated 4.4 million unauthorized adults have U.S. citizen children who could eventually sponsor them, Jacoby said. Congress could lift annual caps on the number of green cards that can be given out to family members and expand the categories.
Some Democrats may even be inclined to go along with just a bill focused on the dreamers as long as they see it as a steppingstone to address the rest of the 11 million immigrants. Other immigration-reform supporters say they would prefer the 13-year pathway to citizenship that was included in the Senate-passed bill, which would require the immigrants to submit to background checks and pay assessed taxes, fees and penalties before they could get a green card. But lately they have stopped short of saying they won’t consider any alternative ideas, depending on the details.
“If Republicans want to get credit for reform, they have to come forward with something serious, which includes legalization and a path to citizenship,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, a national organization that champions comprehensive immigration reform. “If they do, I think the Democrats will work with them on it. But right now, the Republicans are off talking to themselves. Until they come forward with proposals, there’s really nothing to react to.”
Bleaker outlook
But given the narrowing window of opportunity and the complexity of the various immigration issues, other observers suggested the forecast for action on immigration reform this year may be bleaker than the die-hard supporters may suspect.
One sign of the challenges that come with immigration negotiations: A bipartisan group of seven House lawmakers who had been collaborating for months on comprehensive legislation fell apart in September without producing a bill. While their effort lost considerable steam after Boehner said the House wouldn’t take a farreaching, single-bill approach, many reform advocates still had hoped that they might come up with some fresh ideas that could be added to the House mix.
There are other dynamics to consider. Boehner could rely on Democrats and a minority of Republicans to pass immigration legislation, as some have urged him to do, but would risk a conservative revolt that could cost him his speaker’s job. The fiscal standoff has strained the already-shaky relations between Boehner and the right wing of his caucus to nearly breaking point.
The interests of national Republican leaders also remain at odds with many rank-and-file House GOP members when it comes to reaching out to Latino voters, who backed Obama in droves over 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Boehner, who as speaker wants to maintain a House Republican majority, and Ryan, a potential presidential hopeful, may consider it a priority to clear the divisive immigration issue off the table, but many of their House GOP colleagues represent conservative congressional districts and are not convinced that immigration reform represents good policy or good politics.
For their part, House Democrats are trying to keep pressure on the Republicans. They have introduced their own immigration-reform legislation, mostly based on the Senatepassed version, and have talked about possibly using the procedural tactic called a “discharge petition” to try to get around Boehner and force a floor vote on the Senate bill. But immigration-reform advocates consider those efforts largely political gestures that have little chance of succeeding in the GOP-dominated chamber.
“There’s just not that much enthusiasm to deal with it up on the Hill,” said Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based organization that supports more immigration enforcement and overall reductions in immigration. “The Republicans don’t have that much incentive to deal with it, there’s a million other things to contend with it, and time constraints matter enormously. All of that makes it unlikely.”
Camarota also offered a cynical explanation for why some GOP lawmakers might be continuing to talk up the possibility that immigration reform will pass.
“Let’s face it: There’s a lot of sound and fury explicitly so that when the thing fails, they can say, ‘Hey, look, you know, we tried,’ ” he said.
Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., a member of the “Gang of Eight” that wrote the Senate immigration-reform bill and a former12year House member, acknowledged that distractions such as Syria and “this budget mess” have dramatically complicated matters, if only because the crises took up precious time.
“It’s made it tougher for the calendar, but there’s still a number of people working on it over there, trying to get some bills to the floor,” Flake said.
One expert in Latino politics said the escalating partisan tensions that surrounded the standoff over government funding, the health-care law and the debt ceiling might actually help immigration reform in one respect.
After the “ugliness” of the fiscal showdown, some Republicans might be inclined to pass immigration legislation to demonstrate that they can tackle a problem in a constructive way, said Louis DeSipio, a professor of political science and Chicano/ Latino studies at the University of California-Irvine.
“Future leaders, and I would put Cantor and Ryan in that category, are going to be looking for something that they might be able to use to put a better image on the party,” he said.
However, DeSipio agreed that time is running out for the House to pass its bills and then come to terms with the Senate on a final version that both chambers could vote on and send to the White House for Obama’s signature.
“To my mind, if it doesn’t pass, or there isn’t serious movement, by January, then it’s dead, just because it’s an election year,” DeSipio said. “Even moderate Democrats don’t want to bring it up in an election year.”