Overblown differences in budget plans narrowing

At the start of the week, it looked like the state was in for a real doozy of a budget brawl. By the end of the week, it looked like politicalfight fans were in for a disappointment.

The initial differences between the budgets of Gov. Jan Brewer and Senate President Andy Biggs were always overblown. The more important story all along was how united Statehouse Republicans are on the fundamental approach to the state budget.

Contrary to myth in some quarters, when the fiscal tsunami hit after the housing bubble burst, Republican lawmakers didn’t gleefully start whacking away at state spending. They did $9 billion worth of other stuff to minimize spending reductions: borrowing, fund transfers, postponing payments but not spending, depleting the “rainy-day fund,” and referring a temporary sales-tax increase to voters.

A couple of years ago, it be- came clear that these temporizing measures wouldn’t be enough.

The hit to state revenue was too deep and prolonged. The recovery was too slow.

Biggs united Republicans in the Legislature behind a nogimmicks approach. Adopt a budget without borrowing, additional tax increases or accounting tricks. Brewer ultimately agreed, although she had submitted a budget that still relied on a few gimmicks.

Although Republican legislators are divided on some big issues, such as Common Core, there appears to be close to unanimity on a no-gimmicks state budget. This was masked last year, when the budget process was hijacked to facilitate Medi- caid expansion. But even then, the budget passed by legislative Democrats and Republican rebels adhered to the nogimmicks principles.

Given sluggish revenue growth, the no-gimmicks restraint sharply limits spending options. The initial Biggs budget spent $175 million less than the Brewer budget because it assumed $215 million less in revenue. Given that revenue collections for this year’s budget are running slightly behind projections, erring on the side of restraint is prudent.

The initial Biggs budget would have increased spending by 3 percent. The Brewer budget would increase it by 5 percent.

Again, prudence would suggest a slower approach to turning the spending spigot back on. Even the initial Biggs budget proposed spending $420 million more next year than the state will take in. The state is relying on revenue saved from the temporary sales tax to tide it over for the next few years. Revenue collections don’t seem to warrant a bigger bet.

Biggs has added $50 million in spending to his budget, bringing the proposed increase to 3.7 percent. Differences that weren’t that meaningful to begin with are now even narrower.

Biggs conceded in a couple of areas where he had a point.

Brewer asked for big bucks to transition Child Protective Services into a stand-alone agency. There is no meaningful opposition in the Legislature to doing that. It will happen. It will cost what it costs, and the Legislature will pay for it.

But budgeting a big number makes it likely that it will all be spent. Better to budget a smaller number and have those implementing the transition have to justify a supplemental appropriation if it proves insufficient.

The State Board of Education has not only not selected a test for the new Common Core standards, it hasn’t decided what to do with the results.

That should precede a budget request.

Nevertheless, big bucks will be appropriated for the CPS transition, and funding will be made available for an unidentified test for an unidentified purpose.

Biggs thinks he has added enough money to get his budget through the House and signed by Brewer. In reality, it doesn’t matter.

Even if there are additional fights over spending here and there, they will occur within the confines of Biggs’ no-gimmicks budget constraints. They may seem like big fights, because politicians can make fights over small things seem big.

But the important lesson is this: While Statehouse Republicans are divided on some issues, they are remarkably united on the biggest issue of all. Even though, sometimes, it doesn’t look that way.