Wildfires
Meyers said. “Once we get warm and dry down here, it’s going to translate to the higher elevations as well.”
Mike Crimmins, Climate Science Extension specialist at the University of Arizona, said from a historical perspective, the current weather pattern isn’t unusual. It just hasn’t been the norm for Arizona recently.
“We’ve had plenty of Aprils come through in the past five or so years where temperatures have raced high, and dew points have crashed and we’ve already been well into fire season by this time,” Crimmins said. “I think we’re kind of pushing it off at least a month, which is great.”
The pattern of weak low-pressure systems that have been crossing the Southwest in recent months could be traced to the weak El Niño conditions from late in the winter. Those storm systems aren’t powerful, but they might delay monsoon conditions, which typically provide rain and offer some relief from fire danger.
“If we continue to get low pressure coming through, it doesn’t allow high pressure to build over the desert Southwest,” Meyers said. “Until we get that in place for a long period of time, we don’t get the moisture we can tap into and draw northward that initiates our monsoon during the summer months.”
But a wet monsoon could also add to future fire risks. Last year’s monsoon, combined with drench- ing storm systems that came through the state in the fall and winter, contributed to the current bumper crop of weeds and grasses that could fuel fires.
“That’s the interesting thing that can happen here in the Southwest,” Crimmins said. “If you have a really good productive monsoon season the summer prior, you can grow a bunch of weeds and grass and vegetation, that then becomes standing fine fuels. It kind of cuts both ways.”