OSCAR FAVORITES BREAK FROM THE PACK
The ones to watch: ‘La La Land,’ ‘Moonlight’ and ‘Manchester’
The next Oscar best-picture winner could be a musical love letter to L.A., a heartfelt African-American coming-of-age story or the tale of a New England family struggling through tragedy.
With Critics’ Choice Awards nominations coming Thursday — followed by Golden Globe (Dec. 12) and Screen Actors Guild (Dec. 14) announcements — the road to the Academy Awards (nominations are Jan. 24; the ceremony is Feb. 26) is lined with movies already racing to follow Spotlight as the next best-picture winner.
Wtih many voters still mulling their picks, “you have a handful of films, but you just don’t know which ones will be the most popular,” says AwardsDaily.com editor Sasha Stone. She says three films have positioned themselves as early front-runners for a coveted Oscar nod: festival favorite La
La Land, the drama Moonlight (which won four Gotham Awards Monday, including best feature) and the tearjerking Manchester
by the Sea (named National Board of Review’s best film Tuesday).
Oscar experts weigh in on those and other movies (in theaters now unless indicated otherwise) surging in the race:
PLENTY OUT THERE TO PLEASE THE CROWDS
One recurring theme among potential best contenders La La
Land (in theaters Dec. 9) and the globetrotting epic Lion is “that they leave you in a pretty emotional state,” says Erik Davis, managing editor for Fandango .com and Movies.com. Lion offers “a wild real-life story,” and it and La La Land have intense endings, he adds. “When a movie leaves you with a powerful finale, it sticks with you and it sticks with voters.”
DIVERSITY’S IN THE PICTURE
Stone doesn’t see another repeat of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy: She expects this year to yield “one of the most diverse selections we’ve seen in a long time.” Three movies with mostly black casts could vie for top-film honors — not only Moonlight but also director/star Denzel Washington’s 1950s-set Fences (Dec. 25) and the NASA historical drama Hidden Figures (Dec. 25) — as will civil rights drama Loving. In
Fences, based on the August Wilson play, Washington and Viola Davis “give two of the best performances of the last 20 years,” Davis says. And Moonlight is “the kind of little indie artsy movie Hollywood likes to get behind,” says Tom O’Neil of the awardsprediction site GoldDerby.com.
BIOPICS TAKE FLIGHT
Historical figures always play well at the Oscars, and this year’s slate includes the experimental Jackie (Friday, with Natalie Portman as Jackie Kennedy), World War II drama Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Garfield as conscientious objector Desmond Doss) and flyboy thriller Sully (on DVD/Blu-ray/ digital HD, with Tom Hanks as “Miracle on the Hudson” Captain Sully Sullenberger). O’Neil calls Jackie “an ideal Oscar candidate, because it’s a biopic about an enigmatic American icon starring an Oscar darling,” yet adds that Ridge “has the backstory of redemption for Mel Gibson, which could be appealing to voters.”
TAKE NOTE OF DARK HORSES
Davis figures sci-fi is going to be at a natural disadvantage, but “of all the best-picture contenders out now, Arrival’s the one that’s got the best word of mouth.” O’Neil notes that Patriots Day (Dec. 21), about the Boston Marathon bombing, might be a surprise contender (“Its theme is important and feels urgent”), and Stone says the Western noir Hell or High Water (on DVD/Blu-ray/ digital HD) has some heat: “It’s very entertaining and it really feels like America.”