WHO WILL WIN?
ANALYZING OSCARS BEST-PICTURE RACE
Does La La Land have enough musical chutzpah to take the Academy Awards’ big prize? Or might Screen Actors Guild winner Hidden Figures be primed to upset in a diverse slate of nine best-picture contenders? The winner will be named Sunday at the 89th Oscars (ABC, 7 p.m. ET/4 PT). Here, USA TODAY’s Brian
Truitt breaks down what each contender has going for (and against) it:
LA LA LAND
PROS: The musical has drawn widespread critical acclaim, the Oscars adore movies about the movie business, and it tied with All About Eve and Titanic for the most nominations ever — and both of those won best picture.
Braveheart is the only CONS: movie since 1995 to have won best picture and been left out of the Screen Actors Guild best-cast category, as La La Land was. Also, having spent most of awards season as the darling, there’s a chance it might have peaked too early.
HIDDEN FIGURES
PROS: Arguably, no other film is coming on like the 1960s Space Race drama, which has a strong box office ($145 million and counting). The story of unsung heroes in a period in American history that a lot of folks probably remember fondly snagged a win for best ensemble at the SAGs. (Fun fact: Actors compose the largest branch of Academy voters.)
CONS: The film’s late surge, much like that of American Sniper in 2015, might be a little too late in a tough field.
ARRIVAL
PROS: Although Amy Adams was snubbed for best actress, her powerful performance fuels this thought-provoking exploration that garnered eight nominations (tied with Moonlight for secondmost in the entire field).
CONS: No sci-fi movie has ever won best picture, so history isn’t on its side. Plus, it hasn’t been a front-runner at any point this awards season.
LION
The journey of an Indian PROS: boy to Tasmania and then back as an adult is an unbelievable true story that has an emotional resonance.
It was an outside CONS: contender to join the race in the first place and hasn’t been a real player this awards season.
HACKSAW RIDGE
Gripping World War II tales have been Oscar favorites PROS: before (see: Saving Private Ryan) and this one has some momentum with six nominations.
Its religious vibe might not sit well with all voters. And it CONS: remains to be seen whether polarizing director Mel Gibson really is out of the industry doghouse a decade after his antiSemitic rant and subsequent public fall from grace.
MOONLIGHT
PROS: Barry Jenkins’ character study of a gay black man tied with Arrival for the secondmost nominations (eight), the subject matter is timely, and Moonlight seems to have just as passionate a fan base as La La Land.
It has the lowest box CONS: office ($21.4 million) of any best-picture nominee, and having strong word of mouth might not be enough to best formidable competition.
FENCES
PROS: Denzel Washington’s adaptation of the August Wilson play has acting talent in its favor, and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences likes its period pieces.
CONS: The stage-like production lets its players shine, though it lacks a certain cinematic quality that other contenders have.
HELL OR HIGH WATER
PROS: The noir Western has won huge support from critics but even more impressively has managed to maintain momentum since its summer release.
CONS: Only four Westerns have won best picture since the first Oscars in 1929 — most recently, 2007’s No Country for Old Men.
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
PROS: Strong acting and filmmaking across the board are in its favor, including acting nominations for Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams, and tear-jerking family drama always plays well in this category.
CONS: Controversy around Affleck is starting to bubble up because of past sexual harassment claims. Plus, the movie might be too much of a downer amid a slate of quite a few feel-good favorites.