What to watch

Analysts expect pullback in jobs report

When a horse tears out of the starting gate, it often peters out midrace.

Next Friday’s employment report could reveal whether U.S. job growth will suffer a similar fate.

Payroll gains have soundly beat forecasts so far this year, with employers adding 238,000 jobs in January and 235,000 in February. Many economists predicted average monthly gains of about 160,000 in 2017 in light of a low 4.7% jobless that’s supplying firms fewer available workers.

One reason for the outsize showings is warm winter weather likely pulled forward hiring, especially in weather sensitive industries. That could spell weaker job gains in the spring.

“The return of winter weather in March could result in a drop back in construction employment,” economist Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients.

There are some signs of a possible slowdown. Additions of temporary workers, which typically foreshadows the hiring of permanent staffers, have been weak recently, Hunter notes. And while initial jobless claims, a gauge of layoffs, remain near 40year lows, Barclays notes they trended higher through March.

At the same time, the share of Americans saying jobs are plentiful recently hit a 16-year high, Hunter says. And consumer and business confidence are at historically high levels.

All told, economists expect Friday’s Labor Department report to show a pullback to a still-solid 174,000 job gains.