Laurie Roberts: President Donald Trump’s support for Kelli Ward over Sen. Jeff Flake could end up backfiring on him.
It seems likely that President Donald Trump will issue a little payback when he visits Arizona on Tuesday and endorse Kelli Ward to unseat Sen. Jeff Flake. On Thursday, he tweeted out a hint of what may be to come, saying it was “great to see” Ward challenging the “toxic” Flake.
The question is: Would Trump’s endorsement help Ward snag the seat?
My guess: No. In fact, Trump could be endorsing the person most likely to hand the seat over to Democrats – something that hasn’t happened in 30 years.
Look for Ward’s supporters — generally about 35 percent of the Republican base — to crack open the champagne if Trump endorses Ward. But she’s already got them, and some Republicans who backed Trump in 2016 are cringing eight months into his presidency.
“It (a Trump endorsement) won’t pull in additional support,” Republican political strategist Chuck Coughlin, who has been involved in Arizona politics for 32 years, told me. “That’s speaking to the choir.”
Ward is, of course, ecstatic over the possibility of the president’s support, calling Trump’s Thursday tweet a “huge boost” to her campaign.
It’s certainly a clear signal that state Treasurer Jeff DeWit isn’t going for it. Unless Rep. Trent Franks jumps in — his recent visibility and criticisms of the Senate suggest he’s at least toying with the idea — it’s looking like a twoperson primary. So, Ward. The former state senator, who lost to Sen. John McCain last year, is a rock star on the far right. She sends out tweets of herself dressed like a construction worker and has really cool sayings, such as “Mix the mortar to build the border.” She calls Flake the “sanctuary senator,” which sounds great in a sound bite even if it bears little resemblance to actual reality.
Ward already is airing a campaign ad touting the fact that she would have voted to repeal “Obamacare,” which is a great point if you’re running against McCain. But Flake voted for repeal, so she’s not likely to pick up much steam there.
Meanwhile, she’s got a bit of baggage that could make her a hard sell to Republicans outside her hard-right base.
Like her various attempts, while in the Legislature, to declare Arizona exempt from federal gun laws.
Like her 2014 hearing on “chemtrails” over her northwestern Arizona district.
Like her 2014 trek to Mesquite, Nevada, to stand with Cliven Bundy, the rancher who staged an armed standoff against federal agents trying to enforce a court order.
Like her 2016 appearance on the radio show of conspiracy nut Alex Jones. Yeah, the guy who believes 9/11 was an inside government job, that the government is creating gay people by sneaking chemicals into your sons’ juice boxes and that the Tucson massa-
cre — the one that left six people dead and 13, including then-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, injured — was a government “mind-control operation.”
Like her brazen attempt, just last month, to muscle McCain out of his seat mere hours after he learned he has brain cancer.
“She’s not a legitimate candidate,” Coughlin said, “and there will be significant amounts of resources spent to define her, even more than McCain did, as ‘Chemtrail Kelli’ and just not a serious thinker.”
I asked Ward’s campaign spokeswoman how Ward plans to broaden her appeal. Cue the crickets.
If, by some miracle, Ward knocks off Flake, expect Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to lead the applause.
Sinema has signaled she’s going for the seat, having apparently reached a deal with Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton, who sources tell me would run for Sinema’s seat in Congress. (Democrat Deedra Abboud also is in the Senate race.)
“If Kelli Ward is the nominee, Kyrsten Sinema is the next U.S. senator,” Republican strategist Nathan Sproul told me. “Anybody with half a brain knows that. She (Ward) is a candidate in search of her next self-destructive moment.”
Coughlin, Sproul and other GOP strategists I’ve talked with predict that Flake would likely defeat Sinema. Republicans hold a 12-point advantage over Democrats in midterm elections, based on historical voter turnout. Coughlin says Sinema would need to turn out 220,000 new voters to equalize the GOP advantage. Both Coughlin and Sproul say Sinema would have it much easier with Ward as the Republican nominee.
Ironic, isn’t it, that Trump could be endorsing the very person who could hand Democrats their first Senate seat since Dennis DeConcini won it in 1988?