Patriots face only a few contenders
NFL’s best becomes vulnerable after losing WR Edelman
When it comes to Super Bowl rings, the New England Patriots already have “one for the thumb,” so naturally, their rally cry entering this season had to be something akin to “a band for the other hand.”
The Patriots, with five Super Bowl championships since 2002 in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, entered the preseason as the consensus pick to win their sixth set of Super Bowl rings. Considering the improvements to a team that went 14-2 a year ago on their way to claiming yet another Vince Lombardi Trophy, there was even talk about a possible undefeated record in 2017.
But the Patriots became a bit more vulnerable when they lost pesky wide receiver Julian Edelman, a big part of their heart and soul, to a torn ACL during a preseason game against the Lions. It’s left a huge void.
Brady, of course, still has his trusty tight end, Rob Gronkowski, and a new deep threat, Brandin Cooks, whom the Patriots acquired in a trade with the Saints. There are also capable targets Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell. But Edelman was Brady’s Mr. Clutch. “We’ll have to compete this season without him; it’s unfortunate,” Belichick said. “But that’s the way it is, so we’ll have to figure that out.”
Las Vegas odds makers still favor the Patriots to capture Super Bowl LII, but here are three tiers of teams that hope to be in the fight:
The contenders
There are four to six teams that have the best shot at toppling the Patriots and winning it all this season, including the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Green Bay Packers, the Seattle Seahawks and last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, the Atlanta Falcons.
While you can pencil the Falcons as a shoo-in to win the NFC South once again, you can also quickly eliminate them from Super Bowl consideration because of the way they lost it last season, blowing a 28-3 second-half lead in the biggest collapse in Super Bowl history.
Don’t believe me? Just go back a few years ago and look at the hangover the Seahawks developed after losing Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale when Russell Wilson was intercepted at the goal line by New England’s Malcolm Butler with 24 seconds remaining, preventing Seattle from winning back-to-back championships.
Look, Atlanta has the talent to get back, but it will have to fully mentally recover, something that still haunts the Seahawks. Seattle, meanwhile, will have a fight on its hands with the Cardinals just to win the NFC West. I think each of those teams will make the playoffs, but they both have their issues – the running game and the offensive line for the Seahawks, the O-line and the effectiveness of Carson Palmer for the Cardinals.
The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys ought to be included in this group, but neither team is capable of a cruisecontrol ride into the postseason.
That leaves the Packers and the Steelers and, to me, it’s a tossup. I’m projecting them to meet in the Super Bowl. Green Bay has enough of everything, primarily the quarterback play of Aaron Rodgers and his playmaking receivers, to challenge.
Pittsburgh, though, seems to have it all.
It’s not just the triplets on offense – Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger. It’s the Steelers’ ability to rush the quarterback, clog up the middle and defend the pass.
“You want to play from the head, and there’s just not a lot of teams that can do that,” NFL Network analyst Heath Evans said. “And if you don’t have two guys that can rush the passer, you better have a key cog in the middle to push the middle of the pocket to constantly frustrate Brady not being able to step up in the middle of the pocket. And you better be able to score some points.
“The only team I know that can do that, when all healthy, would be Pittsburgh with all their weapons. But Bell’s got to get (in football shape following a contract holdout). (Receiver Martavis) Bryant’s got to bounce back the way we know he’s capable of playing, and Big Ben has to be healthy.”
For the Steelers to win it all, they’ll need home-field advantage to get past the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. If that game is at Gillette Stadium, New England is going back to the Super Bowl.
The hopefuls
There are a handful of trendy picks that have received a ton of hype and praise. But ask yourself this question: Are the Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers really better than the Steelers, Packers, Seahawks and Falcons? Are they better than the Cardinals, Cowboys and Giants, for that matter?
Maybe if everything goes absolutely right, the Raiders or the New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs can get on a roll, become especially hot in November and December, and put themselves in position to challenge for a championship.
Former Colts star receiver Reggie Wayne, now an analyst for the NFL Network, thinks it can happen.
“The Raiders are definitely one of those teams,” he said. “They are a team, when healthy, that can definitely put points on the board. I think their defense can be a little better. They’ve got some secondary woes and I think playing a Tom Brady-based team, you’re going to need your secondary to be right.
“There aren’t many teams as of right now. You’ve got to look at maybe Kansas City. Maybe they can catch New England slipping here and there. But it’s going to be tough.”
There are things to like about each of the teams in this particular group. The Panthers, for instance, added an intriguing piece to their offense by drafting running back Christian McCaffrey.
Ditto with the Jaguars and rookie running back Leonard Fournette.
But there are problems in Carolina’s defensive backfield and issues at quarterback in Jacksonville.
Like Oakland, things are trending upward in Tennessee and Tampa Bay, where quarterback play isn’t an issue at all with the Titans’ Marcus Mariota and the Buccaneers’ Jameis Winston.
Teams like these, however, usually have to make a deep run in the postseason first and get a taste before managing to get there and win it all.
That’s why other decent clubs with even more questions such as the Colts, Lions and Broncos might have a shot, but not a great one to upset the Patriots. You can’t count on Andrew Luck staying healthy in Indianapolis, the defense playing over its head in Detroit, or whoever ends up starting at quarterback – Trevor Siemian, for now – in Denver being a consistent and efficient leader.
All of the teams in this tier have holes that can be exploited. I really wanted to back the Raiders here, but I couldn’t after speaking with Evans, the former longtime NFL fullback.
“The more I looked at the Raiders, the defense doesn’t stand a chance,” he said. “And really not even in the back end, but even just the ability to stop the run. What the Patriots do in the ground game would give them fits. I believe Derek Carr is going to grow into something really special, but it’s a team game and right now he’s 2-16 versus playoff teams.
“Those two wins were versus Brock Osweiler.”
Like I said, he sold me.
The dreamers
Look, I don’t want to poke fun at anyone, but if you look around you can find writers and websites that actually have projected the Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears to either make the playoffs or at least be real challengers. Please. Unless Jared Goff suddenly turns into Joe Montana, Jay Cutler quits being Jay Cutler and the Bears hand over the quarterbacking keys to Mitchell Trubisky, I’m not buying any of it. Well, maybe if Trubisky is named the starter over Mike Glennon. Then again, probably not.
I share the same sentiments about the Chargers, Redskins and Bengals – teams that may have some very likable pieces – but who ultimately will wither and fall out of the race by midseason. Teams like the Bills, Browns, 49ers and Jets will be out of it after a month.
The only two teams in this third and final group with a puncher’s chance are the Eagles and the Ravens.
They are both sound at quarterback, have their share of at least semi-star players on both sides of the ball, and seem to have the veteran presence and solid coaching staffs to pull a surprise.
Unless my eyes and ears deceive me, you won’t find any other sleepers in this mix.
San Diego has proved to be nothing but a tease, Washington has advanced to the playoffs only twice in the past nine years and the Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1990.