THINKING AHEAD
Who would start Game 2 in playoffs?
So, who would you rather have start Game 2 of the National League Divisional Series at Dodger Stadium? Patrick Corbin, Zack Godley or Taijuan Walker? We’re about a month away from the MLB playoffs, and while the Diamondbacks can’t look ahead, we’re under no such obligation. Arizona’s hot streak started the day after I wrote that it looked like they had been pressing and needed to take a cue from manager Torey Lovullo and relax. During a down period that started right around the All-Star break, I had seen intangible signs of frustration, and the numbers seemed to bear that out. Guys were striking out too much. They weren’t hitting with runners in scoring position.
And the cardiac D-Backs, a club becoming known for late-game heroics and walk-off wins, had a 3-11 record in one-run games during the 19-26 stretch.
Since then? The Diamondbacks’ club-record win streak created such a commanding lead in wild-card standings that an analytics website, fangraphs.com, projects Arizona as a statistical lock to make the playoffs.
In the two weeks before the Padres series, the Diamondbacks had six games of more than 10 strikeouts. Their average with runners in scoring position rose from .165 during the cold spell to .271 during the surge. And they went 4-0 in one-run games.
It’s tempting to wonder whether Lovullo’s crew might be in danger of coasting to the end of the season, potentially losing their edge and putting them at risk of losing a one-game playoff — or as I think of it, Game 163 of the regular season — or missing out on the play-in game all together.
But I’m not so concerned about that. From General Manager Mike Hazen on down, this club has done nothing to earn the right to take it easy.
Hazen has made smart moves in his first year in the desert, running his own operation after being a key piece of the Red Sox machine. Bringing in J.D. Martinez showed that he wasn’t content to improve over last year. It showed that he was willing to take a shot, provided it was there to take.
Lovullo, in his first full year as skipper, has shown the virtues of California cool, reducing wins and losses to little more than moments in time.
And guys who have been around for years, including Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and David Peralta, are performing to high standards, even under the spotlight of a playoff run. So, let’s take a peek into the future. It looks like the Diamondbacks will face Colorado in a one-game playoff at Chase Field. Barring something shocking, Zack Greinke will start that game.
Greinke, in four starts against the Rockies this year, has a 3.65 ERA with 31 strikeouts. He’s gone seven innings in three of the four starts, and as we’ve seen, if a starter can get 21 outs, this club can be tough to beat with Archie Bradley in the eighth and Fernando Rodney in the ninth.
Assuming Greinke keeps Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and the gang in check, Robbie Ray takes Game
It’s not clear which Dodgers team will show up. The squad that was on pace to challenge the record for most wins in a season, or the club that’s been in a free fall.
1 of the NLDS in LA.
And that brings us to the mystery of Game 2.
Either Corbin, Godley or Walker will head to the bullpen for the playoffs, when starting rotations shrink to four. Which one gives you the best chance against LA?
Also, it’s not clear which Dodgers team will show up. The squad that was on pace to challenge the record for most wins in a season, or the club that’s been in a free fall, losing 12 of 13 — six of those against the Diamondbacks.
Ray might not own the Dodgers, but he has them on a solid lease. He’s 4-1 against LA this year.
The lone loss came when LA was on an 11-game win streak. Ray has 52 Ks in 30.5 innings and has given up one run or fewer against the Dodgers in four of his five starts against them.
Still, Dodgers stars Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger, who have been hurt, will have been back in the lineup long enough to regain their legs by the time the playoffs start. And when Clayton Kershaw is pitching well, it’s foolish to bet against him.
So, it’s plausible that the Diamondbacks could be up 1-0 or down 0-1 by the time Game 2 starts.
Corbin has to have the edge to get the start, right? He’s won his last five, giving up just two earned runs in the process. But he’s 0-2 against the Dodgers this year with both losses coming in LA.
Walker, for his part, has been pitching great lately, winning his last four starts and giving up just two earned runs. He also has had success against LA, winning all three against them, including two on the road.
Godley, meanwhile, is 2-1 against LA. Like Ray, he lost a one-run game to the boys in blue in early July. But he has a 4.13 ERA with just 16 Ks in 17.4 innings against LA.
With all that said, there’s just something about Godley that I like.
Maybe it’s his demeanor. Maybe it’s the way he sprints onto the field. Maybe it’s just that curveball.
But there’s a month left before Lovullo has to make the decision. Let’s watch and see if one of these three emerges.