Hurricane could cool Florida’s economy
Citrus production, tourism set to take big hit from storm
Hurricane Irma is expected to pose at least a temporary setback to Florida’s sizzling economy as it takes aim at the heart of the nation’s citrus production and batters its robust tourism industry.
But if the storm causes extensive damage that discourages incoming retirees and tempers runaway population growth, the economic effects could be more substantial, analysts say.
Florida is the nation’s top citrus producer and also leads in sugarcane, tomatoes, watermelons and fresh market cucumbers, according to state government data. Farmers are trying to drain fields of excess water, secure equipment and ensure water pumps work in the event of flooding, said Lisa Lochridge, spokeswoman for the Florida Fruit and Vegetable Association.
“With a storm of this size, people are very, very concerned,” she said.
The most immediate worry is the vast orange crop in central and southern Florida. Risks to the crop have increased since forecasts altered the storm’s projected path westward, said Chris Hyde, agricultural meteorologist at MDA Weather Services.
“It’s really in the cross-hairs of this thing,” he said, and a vast majority of the citrus crop could be destroyed.
Since Wednesday, orange futures prices have risen 11%, and a similar impact could ripple through grocery stores across the U.S., depending on the actual damage, Hyde said.
Tourism, the state’s largest industry, also faces major disruptions. Florida had 112.4 million visitors last year, and tourism generated $90 billion in economic activity.
Some major cruise lines canceled voyages out of the nation’s big three cruise ports, in Miami, Cape Canaveral and Fort Lauderdale.
Total economic losses from the storm are likely to be similar to Harvey in the Houston area, said Kwame Donaldson, economist at Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s projects Harveyinduced losses from property damage and lost economic output will total $108 billion, though other estimates have been closer to $160 billion.
For Florida, the nation’s fourth-largest economy, that could slice estimated thirdquarter economic growth of 3.7% by as much as a percentage point, Donaldson said. The pullback would be offset in subsequent quarters as homes and businesses are rebuilt.
A widespread impact also could slow population growth.
“It could very well be felt in people deciding not to move to Florida — which is the golden goose of Florida’s” strong economic gains, Donaldson said.