Records show Republicans adding to their voter edge.

Party claims to be eager to combat GOP rhetoric

Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, Democrats in Arizona and across the country have made it clear they are eagerly awaiting an opportunity to vote him and other Republicans out of office.

Democrats here have pointed to a number of indicators of their increased activism in the Trump era — a growing number of political groups, big letterwriting campaigns, and huge turnouts at town-hall meetings and at rallies to protest or advocate for policies coming out of Washington, D.C., and the state Capitol.

But the energy is hard to detect in one key measure of political power: voter registration.

Arizona’s registration records show it’s Republicans, not Democrats, who have added to their voter edge since last year’s election.

Such numbers fluctuate throughout election cycles. But in a year when Democrats have marched and protested and heckled their conservative representatives in sizable numbers, it’s notable that it hasn’t translated into more avowedly left-leaning loyalists.

Overall, 34.6 percent of Arizona voters in October were registered as Republicans. That’s up 0.1 percent since November 2016.

By comparison, 30.2 percent of registered voters are Democrats, a decline of 0.2 percent.

The slippage isn’t large, but in raw numbers, Democrats added 15,000 registrants statewide at a time when the GOP gained 29,000.

Democrats downplayed the trend, saying it happens regularly when the next election is a long way off.

“You shouldn’t read too much into the numbers right now because it’s an offyear,” said Enrique Gutierrez, a spokesman for the Arizona Democratic Party.

Striking trend in a key district

Democrats maintain a narrow registration advantage in all three of the state’s competitive congressional disthat tricts, but the edge has fallen in the past year.

And the lack of voter-registration traction by Democrats is most noticeable in the 2nd District, currently represented by Republican Rep. Martha McSally — the state’s most competitive and evenly divided district.

Democrats see the district as a district they can win in 2018 as they fight for control of the U.S. House in 2018.

But unlike Arizona’s other eight congressional districts, the Tucson-based district has seen registration fall across the board. Since last year:

Democrats lost 4,600 voters and saw their overall advantage there fall below 400.

Republicans lost 2,300 voters. Independents and other voters fell by 4,400.

The loss of 11,000 voters in the 2nd District this year happened at a time when everywhere else in Arizona registration rose by 87,000.

There’s evidence to suggest off-year losses there aren’t new. The 2nd District lost 10,000 voters between Election Day 2012 and October 2013.

But other districts also lost voters year. While this year, all the other districts added between 2,300 and 19,500 voters.

Similar trends elsewhere

The difficulty roping in new Democratic registrants isn’t limited to Arizona.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic registration has fallen 4.4 percent since last year. By comparison, the party lost 3.9 percent in the year after the 2012 elections. Republican registration there dipped 3.1 percent in 2013 but fell only 2.4 percent this year.

North Carolina has seen a 3 percent decline in registered Democrats in the past year and a 1 percent decline in Republicans. In 2013, Democrats had fallen 3.4 percent and the GOP had lost 2.8 percent.

If Democrats are looking for an encouraging sign, it may be in Virginia.

That state doesn’t track registration by party, but registration in the four congressional districts currently held by Democrats fell 0.6 percent compared to the 0.2 percent decline in the seven districts held by Republicans.