Governors bank on TV
Spending tops $132M as GOP fights to keep seats
If money indeed talks, it’s going to be a rather noisy midterm election — especially when it comes to governors’ races.
A USA TODAY analysis shows more than $132.5 million has been spent in television advertising to influence governors’ races — nearly double the $69 million that candidates, parties and other groups spent at the same point on gubernatorial contests during the last midterm election in 2014. Republicans are fighting to hold onto more than two dozen seats.
Traditionally, the president’s party loses governors’ seats in midterm elections, but the GOP has more seats to lose this year than either party had in those elections.
WASHINGTON – Spending on television advertising to influence governors’ races has surged past $132.5 million this year as Republicans fight to keep their hold on more than two dozen seats, a USA TODAY analysis shows.
Spending between Jan. 1 and June 4 is nearly double the $69 million that candidates, parties and other groups spent at the same point in governors’ contests during the last midterm election in 2014, according to estimates of broadcast television spending compiled by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group.
The big spending reflects the high stakes. Republicans control 33 governors’ seats, the highest number in nearly a century. In November, the GOP must defend 26 seats to Democrats’ nine.
“Republicans are very exposed,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “You would expect that the number of Republican governorships will decrease because they control so many seats” and the president’s party typically loses ground in midterm elections “up and down the ballot.”
In past “wave” elections — the Democratic wave of 2006 and the Republican waves of 2010 and 2014 — the president’s party lost three to six governors’ seats. Republicans have more seats to lose this year than either party had at stake in those three elections.
For Democrats, November “is one of the biggest opportunities for gubernatorial pickups in generations,” said Jared Leopold, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association.
Among the competitive states seeing the most ads: Illinois, where multimillionaire Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner survived a primary challenge
to face Democratic billionaire J.B. Pritzker, a venture capitalist and hotel chain heir, in November. Each is investing his own money in the race.
The outcome of races from Nevada to New England could shape politics and policies for years to come. About two dozen governors elected in November will have the power to veto new congressional and legislative maps drawn in once-a-decade redistricting after the 2020 Census.
“Defending 26 of 36 seats means we are victims of our own success,” said Jon Thompson, spokesman for the Republican Governors Association. “But that doesn’t mean we are not ready for it.” He said Republicans have the financial resources to compete — the Republican Governors Association has outraised its Democratic rival group by $33 million in this cycle — and will benefit from strong economic growth in GOP-controlled states.
“Our Republican governors and candidates can run on a very pro-jobs and pro-growth message,” he said.
That strategy is playing out on the airwaves. Taxes, jobs and the economy are among the top issues in Republicansponsored ads in governors’ races in Illinois, Michigan, Connecticut and Maine, according to Kantar Media’s tally.
In one Michigan ad, term-limited Republican Gov. Rick Snyder touts the jobs “rushing back” to the state during his tenure before telling viewers that Lt. Gov. Brian Calley “must be our next governor to continue the comeback.”
Democrats are emphasizing health care, gun safety and the environment.
In Florida and Nevada, which hold primaries Tuesday, gun control is a key issue. In the last eight months, horrific mass shootings have occurred in Parkland, Fla., and Las Vegas.
“The Democrats are clearly going to push the gun control issue,” said Eric Herzik, political science department chair at the University of Nevada, Reno. “I think that’s true nationwide, but especially in Nevada after the shooting.”
Data from Kantar Media shows that gun control was the No. 1 issue in ads run by Democrats in Nevada and the No. 2 issue — slightly below the environment — in ads they ran in Florida.
The two main Democratic candidates in Nevada, Steve Sisolak and Chris Giunchigliani, are battling to show which is stronger on the issue, Herzik said.
Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the leading Republican candidate for governor, has largely avoided the issue, Herzik said, but won’t be able to do that after Tuesday’s primary.
In Florida, Democratic candidate and former Miami Beach mayor Philip Levine has run ads calling for stronger background checks on gun buyers and a permanent ban on assault rifles in the wake of the Parkland shooting.
Republican candidate Adam Putnam has come out against some of the major provisions of a bill championed by Republican Gov. Rick Scott and passed by the state legislature after the school shooting. Putnam, the state’s agriculture commissioner, opposes raising the minimum age for gun buyers from 18 to 21 and imposing a mandatory three-day waiting period on all firearm purchases.
Democrats are counting on President Trump to be a drag on Republicans. According to the latest monthly tracking poll by Morning Consult, Trump’s approval ratings are 48% in Florida, 42% in Michigan and 45% in Nevada.