Can anyone catch Dixon for shot at IndyCar title?

INDIANAPOLIS — He’s due, Will Power says half-feigning exasperation.

In fact, Scott Dixon is long past due to suffer a little bad luck. Everyone else in the championship hunt has had to endure their fair share — in Power’s case, perhaps even more than a fair share — so now it’s the championship leader’s turn to see the short end of Lady Luck’s stick.

“I have to say, Dixon is due a bad day here,” Power said with a chuckle. “At least one. He’s had such a great run. Everyone seems to have a bad run at some point, so it should be his time here soon.”

That’s what it’s going to take, the Indianapolis 500 champion added, for he or anyone else to catch the man known as “Ice Man” in the Verizon IndyCar Series points standings. The four-time champion is not going to leave the door open with unforced errors. That’s not who he is. Never has been.

“I don’t expect (Scott) to make a mistake,” concurred championship contender Alexander Rossi after his win at Mid-Ohio a few weeks ago. “The pressure is on me to deliver the results, to deliver under pressure.”

There are only four races remaining in the 2018 IndyCar campaign, including this weekend’s trip to Pocono Raceway for Sunday’s ABC Supply 500 (1:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN).

Andretti Autosport’s Rossi trails by 46 points while reigning series champion Josef Newgarden of Team Penske is down 60. On the fringe are a pair of former champions in Penske’s Power (87 points back) and Andretti’s Ryan Hunter-Reay (-95 points).

While there are nine other drivers still mathematically eligible to wear the series crown, none beyond these five have a realistic shot. And truthfully, if recent history is any guide, only Rossi poses a serious threat.

But let’s start with the men fourth and fifth in the championship, Power and Hunter-Reay.

Over the past 10 years only one driver has won a championship who wasn’t in first or second place at this point in the season. Dario Franchitti chased down Dixon and Ryan Briscoe in 2009, though he only had to overcome a 21point deficit. Power and Hunter-Reay are staring down deficits more than four times that large. And then there’s this: Over the past 10 years, no driver down 60 points or more with four races to go has gone on to hoist the Astor Cup.

Still, faced with those seemingly insurmountable odds, Power holds up a more recent example of why a miracle could still unfold.

“Going into Indy this year, I was like 77 points behind the leader,” Power said. “And within two races, one of them double points, I was leading the championship. That just goes to show you how quickly things can swing. With double points at Sonoma, the championship is absolutely up for grabs between five, maybe even six people.”

Power or Hunter-Reay would have to laugh in the face of history to surge past Dixon to the title, but perhaps two of the most talented drivers in the series can pull off the minor miracle.

One driver with a slightly more realistic shot at preventing Dixon’s fifth IndyCar championship is the defending champion.

While no driver in the past 10 years has come from as far back as Newgarden is right now (60 points), two came close: Franchitti (59 points) in 2010 and Dixon (54 points) in 2015.

Finally, that leaves Rossi. The young American driver hunting down his first IndyCar title in just the third year of his career has the best shot at catching Dixon. While a 50 percent chance might be a bit too optimistic considering the living legend in front of him, recent history says those are precisely Rossi’s odds heading into final four races of the season.

Over the past 10 years, a driver has overtaken the leader to win the title five times: the three aforementioned instances with Franchitti (2009, 2010) and Dixon (2015), as well as Dixon again in 2013 and Power in 2014.