Arizonans confused by voucher measure

Poll: 41 percent of voters support Proposition 305

Arizona voters appear deeply confused by the ballot language of Proposition 305, which will help decide the future of the state’s expanded universal voucher program, and that confusion could influence the outcome in November, a new Suffolk University/Arizona

Republic poll shows.

The poll of 500 registered voters showed 41 percent support expanding the voucher program that gives parents public money to send their children to private school, while 32 percent were opposed. A large block of voters — 27 percent — were still undecided.

But the poll and subsequent interviews with voters surveyed for the poll revealed widespread confusion about what the ballot measure would do.

Every Democrat in the Legislature opposed the 2017 voucher expansion that Prop. 305 would keep in place or repeal. But 51 percent of Democratic voters surveyed for the poll said they would vote yes in support of the expansion.

Meanwhile, Republicans pushed the voucher expansion at the Legislature. But only 29 percent of Republican voters polled indicated they would vote yes on Prop. 305.

In addition, three voters contacted by The Arizona Republic — a Democrat, an independent and a Republican — once they fully understood what the ballot measure would do, each said they would change their positions on Prop. 305.

Prop. 305 asks voters whether they want to keep or repeal the 2017 expansion of the Empowerment Scholarship Account program, which expanded the program to all public school students but capped it at 30,000 students. About 5,000 students currently have ESA accounts. A “yes” vote keeps the expansion; a “no” vote overturns it.

Ballot measure wording causes confusion

The wording of the ballot measure appears to have contributed to unexpected responses. For registered Democrats, who indicated in the poll they were supporting Krysten Sinema in the U.S. Senate race and David Garcia for Arizona governor, 53 percent said they would vote yes to expand the voucher program.

Among them was Dave Hess, a 55-year-old Democrat and public education supporter from a family of teachers — a constituency that tends to oppose voucher expansion — who told the pollster he would vote yes based on the ballot language. But after hearing the ballot measure described by a reporter, he changed his stance.

“I think I would probably change that to no,” said Hess, who works at Oak Creek Brewery in Sedona. “I was just going off of what the guy was reading to me ... if it’s a voucher program I would vote no.”

Marina Lang, a 24-year-old independent from Maricopa County who supports public education, said she would also change her “yes” response to a no after learning more of the details of Prop. 305.

“I don’t support vouchers,” Lang said. Pollsters read the actual ballot language to the voters they surveyed. Lang called the language “absolutely confusing”and said she was misinformed by it.

The ballot language reads:

Proposition 305 would expand eligibility for education empowerment scholarship accounts to increase the number of eligible students enrolled in kindergarten through twelfth grade, with greater funding provided for low-income students. A YES VOTE would allow Senate Bill 1431 (2017) to go into effect, which would gradually increase for four years the percentage of students in kindergarten through twelfth grade eligible to receive an empowerment scholarship account. A NO VOTE will preserve the existing law regarding empowerment scholarship accounts.

“I think the wording of that is misleading big time,” Hess said. “Hearing that it makes it sounds like something different — like something to do with a scholarship.”

Only 29 percent of Republican voters supporting Gov. Doug Ducey’s re-election and Rep. Martha McSally in the U.S. Senate race indicated they were voting yes, even though Ducey helped muscle through the expansion that’s at issue in Prop. 305 and is supporting the ballot measure.

Cody Bayes, 30, a Republican construction manager from Phoenix, told pollsters he would vote no on Prop. 305 because he didn’t know how the program would be funded. When he was told it was a voucher program that wouldn’t raise taxes, he said he would change his vote to a yes. “If there’s no tax increase, I am 100 percent for that,” Bayes said.

2018 poll results differ from 2016

A 2016 poll by The Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News had starkly different results when it asked the question: “Do you favor or oppose allowing students and parents who choose a private school to attend at public expense?” Nearly 63 percent of voters opposed using public funds for private tuition, while about 28 percent supported it.

The Suffolk University/Republic poll was conducted Sept. 27-30 and had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. It included those with cell phones and landline telephones.

The survey showed 51 percent of Democrats said they would vote yes, while only 29 percent of Republicans said they would vote yes. Forty-five percent of independents indicated they would vote yes.

Democrats had the lowest percentage of undecided voters at 18 percent, while Republicans had the highest at 35 percent.

Fred Solop, a professor of politics and international affairs at Northern Arizona University, said the 27 percent of undecided voters is a huge number at this point.

“That just underlies ... that people are confused to what this actually refers to,” Solop said. “The confusion could clearly influence the outcome of the vote on this proposition.”

He said advertising on both sides needs to break through the confusion and link Prop. 305 to something tangible like support for public schools or school choice.

The yes campaign has red signs that mimic those associated with the Red for Ed movement that brought thousands of the people to the Capitol to protest in support of more funding for public education and for larger teacher raises.

“That is designed to promote confusion,” Solop said. “We really want to promote an informed electorate, but here you have the position where you have to confuse the electorate. It’s not a very healthy aspect of our election dynamic.”

Solop said Red for Ed morphed into the Invest In Ed ballot measure to raise income taxes to fund teachers and public education. It was removed from the November ballot because of a court challenge.

“People who think they are supporting Red for Ed or Invest In Ed will say yes on it. I think it’s fascinating how it is playing out,” Solop said. “I could easily see them voting yes on this thinking the yes position is pro-education.”

Campaigns aim to correct confusion

Save Our Schools Arizona, which collected more than 111,000 signatures to put the voucher law on the ballot, is trying to educate voters so they know what Prop. 305 does and how it negatively affects public education, said spokeswoman Dawn Penich-Thacker.

“We’ve been trying to get the truth to voters,” she said. “It’s not surprising that deceptive language is indeed is tricking people into voting against their own values.”

Penich-Thacker called the Yes for Ed signs that mimic Red for Ed the “lowest of the low” because Yes for Ed “is literally the opposite of what they support.”

She said telling voters not to be fooled by this messaging is the focus of the final weeks of the campaign.

“It sounds like a lovely educational effort. It is the opposite. It is a subsidy for the wealthy. It’s a way to siphon dollars out of public education,” Penich-Thacker said. “When people understand what they are actually voting on, what empowerment scholarships really are, they are totally opposed to this regardless of party.”

Andrew Clark, Arizona director for Americans for Prosperity, the political advocacy arm of the Koch network, said in a statement that the Republic’s poll confirms what the groups own internal polling has shown. AFP helped push the law through the Legislature, but is officially neutral on Prop. 305.

“When people are presented with language that asks if they support more freedoms for students to reach their full potential, they’re going to be naturally inclined to say yes,” he said.

Jenny Clark, the spokeswoman for Yes for Ed, said the poll shows “Arizona voters want and care about school choice.”

She said people need to research and make sure they understand what they are voting on, but felt confident that once voters do that, “they are going to be inclined to vote yes.”

As for the Yes for Ed signs mimicking Red for Ed, Clark said she sees the Yes for Ed campaign as pro-education so using red “seems quite fitting.”

All of the three voters interviewed by The Republic for this story said they planned to do more research on all of the ballot measures before voting and encouraged other voters to do the same.