Democrats optimistic after big Ariz. gains
Party broke through in pivotal statewide races
Two years of seething over 2016 and a late surge of voters seem to have helped Arizona Democrats narrowly break the state’s recent Republican red domination.
But can they keep it?
U.S. Sen.-elect Kyrsten Sinema’s slim victory snaps a string of nine Senate losses in a row for Democrats in Arizona.
Democrats also won the race for schools superintendent and are leading in the statewide races for secretary of state and a seat on the Corporation Commission.
At the congressional level, Democrats won five of nine seats in the U.S. House of Representatives for the first
time in six years and won the statewide vote count in those races for the first time in recent history.
At the Legislature, Democrats came within two seats of the GOP majority in the House of Representatives. It was their best showing there since 1966.
“One of the takeaways is that we’re still a red state, but there were significant inroads made by Democrats,” said Richard Herrera, an Arizona State University associate professor of political science. “Clearly, it takes more than one election to say we’re no longer a red state, but Democrats have reason to be hyped about it.”
Democratic strategist Andy Barr said his party has narrowed their gap in Arizona, but still lags.
“Right now, we’ve gotten to a point where the advantage for a generic Republican is 5 points,” Barr said. “The math is no longer prohibitive.”
Chuck Coughlin, a longtime GOP strategist, said voters seemed to reject President Donald Trump’s behavior and took it out on GOP candidates more than they embraced the Democratic slate.
Coughlin also said the Senate race featured Sinema’s polished campaign against McSally’s, which he said missed too many key groups.
Sinema’s campaign “was the most disciplined message campaign I’ve ever seen,” he said. By contrast, McSally, who represents an evenly divided Tucson-based district, never really appealed to women or independents, he said.
“I didn’t see a narrative change after the primary,” Coughlin said of McSally. “We didn’t see that candidate who got elected in the most competitive district in Arizona.”
Democrats picked up seats in suburban battlegrounds, such as Ahwatukee Foothills and Chandler, where support for the #RedForEd teacher movement is strong and many voters are hesitant about Trump’s tenor of politics.
Aaron Lieberman, a Democratic state House candidate from east Phoenix, was among those projected to flip a swing-district seat blue. He was on track to oust incumbent state Rep. Maria Syms, a staunch Republican.
Lieberman said it’s clear voters are looking for change at the state Capitol, particularly on the issue of funding for public schools.
“We’ve had 10 years of one party controlling everything in the state,” he said on Election Night, as he watched results from Democrats’ hotel party. “People are tired of the status quo and ready for some new blood, fresh voices.”
Democrats had hoped to flip control of the state Senate, but fell short. Republicans are expected to maintain a 1713 majority in the chamber after successfully defending six swing-district incumbents.
Barr said Democrats have perhaps seen their current limits in Arizona.
“Our floor is (gubernatorial candidate) David Garcia. That’s what happens when you run a dumpster fire of a campaign,” he said. “The ceiling may be a little higher than Kyrsten Sinema.”
Arizona’s Democratic gains are real, but they were also driven by a midterm restlessness seen before, Barr said. He pointed to Democratic gains in 2006 during President George W. Bush’s administration, GOP gains during the Barack Obama years and now a surge among Democrats again in the Trump era.
“We still needed a favorable climate to win,” Barr said. “There’s undoubtedly a demographic shift happening, but it’s a slow-motion shift.”
Even so, continued Democratic losses in states like Missouri and Ohio suggest the party needs to look elsewhere for new gains to compete in Washington, Barr said. That likely means places like Arizona, Georgia and Texas.
Republican candidates will need to continue backing Trump, but that will be a benefit in 2020, Coughlin said.
For one, Trump will occupy the top of the ticket. And at least for now, Coughlin said Trump could point to a solid economy and important work on trade deals that should help Republican candidates.
Herrera said Arizona will likely be seen as a swing state in 2020.
“It was somewhat in play last time. It’s definitely in play now,” he said.
For Democrats, perhaps the most encouraging thing is that young voters helped pad their numbers in a midterm, when voting typically falls off.
“One thing we know about voting,” Herrera said, “is it’s habit-forming.”