Historic vote: Record 2.4M cast ballots in Ariz. midterm

Arizona voter turnout in 2018 will be the highest it has been for a midterm election in 36 years.

Driven by political polarization and growing participation by younger voters and women, a record 2.4 million Arizonans — nearly 65 percent of the state’s registered voters — will have cast a ballot in the November general election, according to estimates.

Only 1982, when the state had a third of the registered voters it does today, saw a bigger share of voters go to the polls, according to Secretary of

State’s Office data going back to 1974.

Measured by total ballots cast, only the 2016 presidential election saw more votes in the state.

“It has just been a historic, gangbusters turnout,” said Garrett Archer, senior data analyst at the Secretary of State’s Office. “The residents of Arizona should be very proud that they’re participating at this high of a level.”

The turnout reflects a sharp increase from the 2014 midterm election, when only 48 percent of Arizona voters cast ballots. Experts say turnout was driven to historic heights by increased polarization in response to President Donald Trump’s policies and rhetoric. In particular, young voters and women — groups that tend to favor Democrats — were responsible for much of the increased turnout.

Archer’s data shows the youngest voter group, ages 18 to 34, increased its share of the electorate. While they typically cast 8 percent of ballots, this year they made up 12.5 percent, Archer said.

Women also were a big contributor to the record turnout, which some analysts attribute to the #MeToo movement and a large number of female candidates.

These groups likely contributed to the success of Democratic candidates in the state. Kyrsten Sinema became Arizona’s first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race since 1988. Democrat Kathy Hoffman won the state schools superintendent seat, and Katie Hobbs is leading the race for secretary of state.

Archer said the data showed a clear trend toward the Democrats as early voting progressed until Election Day, especially in Maricopa County.

“This wasn’t countywide; it was targeted in specific regions of the county in which there was a desire to get that specific part of the vote out,” Archer said. “My hat’s off to whatever turnout operation somebody put together, because it worked.”

In all, five of Arizona’s 15 counties will set records for turnout percentage in midterms going back to 1974, including:

❚ Maricopa County, the state’s largest, where 65 percent of voters are estimated to have cast a ballot.

❚ Pima County, where nearly 70 percent of voters cast a ballot, breaking its previous record set in 2010.

❚ Yavapai County, where almost 78 percent of voters cast ballots — the highest recorded turnout by 6 percentage points.

❚ Coconino County, where more than 67 percent of voters cast ballots.

Archer said Yavapai and Coconino counties’ turnout records were particularly impressive and likely reflected increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters. “Those are some areas that were driving turnout,” he said. “Coconino being a very Democratic stronghold, Yavapai being a Republican stronghold — although you can make an argument that that increase in turnout wasn’t driven by increased Republican turnout, but by (Democrats and independents) to bring it up to that level.”

Josselyn Berry, co-director of liberal advocacy group ProgressNow Arizona, said progressive groups did attempt to reach out to voters in more rural areas.

“We had a lot of good feedback from making sure we were talking to voters that don’t usually get talked to,” she said. “People are there, people care about politics, and they also need to be talked to.”

Berry said this year’s success in turnout was the culmination of nearly a decade of efforts by progressive groups to get young people and people of color to the polls.

“A lot of their organizers and volunteers are young people, and a good majority of them are people that grew up in the SB 1070 era and saw for the very first time in their life how politics could directly their life,” Berry said, referring to to the immigration-enforcement law that allowed police to determine immigration status during a stop.

“They focused on registering those same people, getting out in those communities that look like them and getting their fellow young people engaged and motivated to vote,” Berry said.

National issues weighed heavily on most people they talked to, which Berry said wasn’t surprising given the concerns many in minority communities have about the Trump administration. She said her group focused on localizing those issues.

Berry said the main focus was getting the Democratic base out while also reaching out to the state’s large number of independents.

“It was definitely an election where for the first time we were able to really engage and motivate them, and convince them this was an important election and there was a lot on the line, a lot at stake for local communities as well as national politics,” she said.