Trading Goldy right move
After enduring a September that dismembered the Diamondbacks’ hopes for a division title, General Manager Mike Hazen left open all options for 2019, saying he and other baseball operations folks would take several weeks to determine how to operate this offseason.
Teams usually don’t provide daily updates of those types of plans, and the Diamondbacks are no exception. But word has leaked that the Diamondbacks apparently are willing to dismantle the current structure of the
roster in pursuit of building something better.
This week, USA TODAY baseball columnist Bob Nightengale tweeted the Diamondbacks are “extensively shopping” Zack Greinke and added that it would “be interesting” if the team could package Greinke and Paul Goldschmidt.
Yes, that is interesting. So is the news the Diamondbacks are exploring the markets for their two best players.
If the report is true – and there’s no reason to doubt it – it’s an acknowledgement by the Diamondbacks that the current roster has taken them as far as it can.
It’s a wise assessment, and now is the time to act upon it.
Goldschmidt, 31, and entering the final year of his contract, will never have more value. Trading Greinke is more challenging because of his age, 35, and contract ($104 million over the next three years). The Diamondbacks likely will have to pay a portion of that, which complicates trade possibilities.
The Diamondbacks knew an offseason like this was coming at least two years ago. Winning 93 games and making the playoffs in 2017 was a surprise to nearly everyone. To their credit, they decided last year to make another run at the World Series, and owner Ken Kendrick signed off on a payroll increase.
Hazen attempted a balancing act, trading prospects for help and renting players for a year here and a year there.
The end result was a team that finished slightly above average (82-80) after collapsing in September and a farm system desperately in need of an infusion of talent.
The 2019 team might not be any better even if Goldschmidt and Greinke return. Pitcher Patrick Corbin and outfielder A.J. Pollock are likely to leave via free agency, and the team still needs another power hitter to pair with Goldschmidt and David Peralta.
Hazen could make moves this offseason to keep the Diamondbacks a little above average, but leasing players and trading prospects exacts a heavy cost down the road.
It’s baseball’s version of taking out payday loans. It might help in the short term, but it will be far most costly when the final bill is paid.
If the Diamondbacks are as serious about building a winner as they say, this is the time to make difficult decisions, such as parting with Goldschmidt, one of the most productive and popular players in team history.
As distasteful as trading him might be, it’s the only realistic way for a team with the Diamondbacks’ budget to contend.
It worked for the Astros, who lost at least 100 games for three consecutive seasons (2011-2014) as they developed a team that won the World Series in 2017 and made it to the American League Championship Series last season.
The Cubs underwent a similar transformation during those same years, and the Royals embarked on it a year ago.
There is pain involved and the decision is fraught with risk. Trading Goldschmidt for prospects might help attendance in Reno, Jackson and Visalia, minor league affiliates, but it will hurt at Chase Field.
How many people will pay to see a team that loses 100 games?
And what if those prospects don’t develop?
It’s a difficult plan to bring to ownership, and it would require some fortitude from Kendrick to sign off on it.
He should because being slightly above average shouldn’t be the goal.