Ducey’s speech is today

Doug Ducey today will deliver the first State of the State address of his second term, outlining his priorities while stressing fiscal responsibility in a year when the state is projected to have a $900 million surplus.

The speech offers the governor perhaps his biggest stage to lay out an overarching agenda for the next four years, which could shape his legacy both within the state and beyond its borders.

The governor has stayed tightlipped about the policy details he plans to unveil during the speech. But remarks made at his recent inauguration — and during his re-election campaign — offer some clues.

Here are eight things to watch for:

1. Tough talk on looming water crisis

The governor in recent weeks has underscored the urgency of finalizing regional Colorado River drought plans: If Arizona legislators and other officials don’t work out a deal to protect water levels by Jan. 31, the federal Bureau of Reclamation is expected to intervene and implement painful water cuts.

Ducey has said Arizona has “no time to spare” because it depends on the river for 40 percent of its water supply. At his inauguration, he described a shortage as “imminent” and said the state “cannot kick the can any further.”

The governor also has vowed to put an extra $30 million toward protecting water levels in Lake Mead when he submits his executive budget proposal next week.

Sticking points among Arizona leaders negotiating the drought plan include a future water supply for developers and funding for Pinal County farmers to drill wells and pump groundwater.

2. A commitment to education funding

The governor on the campaign trail promised to devote “more money, over and above inflation, every year I am governor” to public education. He was confident that a broader tax base created by new arrivals to the state would fund that pledge.

He’s likely to mention his 20x2020 teacher-raise plan, which he pushed through after a massive teacher walkout last spring.

He has promised to fund the second of three phases — a 5 percent boost in teacher pay, which will cost $165 million — this year.

There also could be an announcement related to the teachers academy he announced in his 2017 State of the State, which was designed to help address an enduring teacher shortage. The academy hasn’t yet funded four years of free college for aspiring Arizona teachers as envisioned; as of last year, it could cover two at most.

A governor’s spokesman has said Ducey wants to put more money into the initiative.

3. Wariness about spending, taxes

Ducey repeatedly has said he plans to approach the state’s largest projected budget surplus in a decade, $900 million, carefully.

More than 27,000 of the state’s roughly 37,000 employees have asked the governor for a raise. State agencies also have pushed for money to cover technology upgrades, expanded highway patrol hours and freeway maintenance, among other requests.

“We’re not going on a spending spree,” the governor said at his inauguration. “We’re going to live within our means. We’re going to fulfill teacher pay raises, and we’re going to be better prepared for the next downturn so it doesn’t become a calamity.”

He has pledged to oppose any proposed tax increases.

4. An emphasis on jobs

Ducey often boasts about cutting “needless regulations and red tape” and drawing more than 300 companies to Arizona during his first term. On Wednesday, he signed an executive order extending a moratorium on all regulatory rule making by state agencies.

He has vowed to build on that “momentum and foundation” if re-elected, continuing to recruit businesses to move here and break down barriers — regulations, presumably — “that keep people from meaningful work.”

In terms of economic partnerships, Ducey has emphasized maintaining the positive trade connection with Mexico he feels he has solidified over the past four years. He hopes to expand that relationship.

5. A school-safety plan revival

Ducey has vowed to get the “Safe Arizona Schools” proposal his office crafted last year passed this session.

The proposal called for more police officers and mental-health counseling in schools; a school safety tip line; and a new class of restraining order to restrict volatile individuals’ access to guns.

It was endorsed by the National Rifle Association but failed to advance in the Legislature after taking hits from both parties. Republicans said the proposal went too far, while Democrats said it didn’t go far enough.

6. Ideas for criminal-justice reform

The governor has indicated he might want to tweak or expand the state’s “Second Chance” re-entry program, which has tripled in size since its creation in early 2017.

The program aims to reduce recidivism by giving individual attention, including job- and lifeskills training, to prisoners considered “moderately or highly” likely to commit another crime upon release.

It also recruits local employers willing to take a chance on convicted felons in the hopes that other companies will follow suit.

During a prison visit last year, the governor committed to exploring participant suggestions including additional ad instructive, diction resources, compassionate parole programs and the elimination of abrupt release date changes.

In his inauguration speech, the governor also said he wanted to find “ways to reverse the trend of far too many young men ending up behind bars.”

7. The front-row faces

The governor typically gives a prominent seat to a guest who can serve as the face of an issue or plan he will highlight in his annual address.

Last year, he invited Sonoran Gov. Claudia Pavlovich to sit with his wife, Angela. Pavlovich has long been an ally of Ducey’s when it comes to trade and other partnerships with the Mexican state.

He also in past years has invited Arizona State University President Michael Crow; Phoenix Police Chief Jeri Williams; and Beth Castro, the daughter of former Arizona Gov. Raul Castro, among others.

8. What he doesn’t mention

What the governor doesn’t talk about is often too.

Lawmakers have vowed to repeal a controversial $32 fee hike for drivers the governor approved last year, but Ducey has indicated the idea is a nonstarter.

It’s also unlikely he’ll mention the series of high-profile leadership changes that occurred during his first term. Most recently, he fired state Parks Director Sue Black and her top deputy after former employees alleged the department had repeatedly developed state land without regard for laws protecting Native American sites.

The governor will probably be less enthusiastic about Uber’s selfdriving cars than he was two years ago, if he brings it up at all.

In 2016, he heralded Uber’s choice to test hundreds of the vehicles in Arizona “due to California’s burdensome regulations.” Last year, the program resulted in a pedestrian death.

It’s unclear whether Ducey will explicitly tackle the idea of charterschool reform: He expressed support for proposed changes on the campaign trail, but only after years of controversies.